546
FXUS64 KSHV 070030
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
730 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK BACK UP TODAY,
GENERALLY KEEPING EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, BEGINNING A RINSE
AND REPEAT PATTERN WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
- STORMS MAY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHWARD.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT,
WITH A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
THE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK: HOT
TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE CASE TONIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 70S ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES OFF.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID
90S ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY THAT WILL MAKE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. I WILL STILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY HEAT PRODUCTS, AS CURRENT ESTIMATES HAVE US JUST
SHY OF CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND HELP
KEEP AREAS OF EAST TEXAS DRY TOMORROW. RECENT RUNS OF THE NBM
HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY SHOWN, BEGINNING ON TUESDAY INSTEAD OF WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING
TO THE WEST, WHICH WILL OPEN EAST TEXAS TO MORE OF THE DIURNAL
AND SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS THAT OTHER AREAS OF THE REGION HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY. RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE ALSO HAD THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
PREVIOUSLY WAS CENTERED OVER IA/MO MOVING FURTHER SOUTH ON
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND KEEP RAIN CONTINUING
FOR OUR NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD DEPEND, HOWEVER ON THE HIGH PRESSURE
OUT WEST TO RETROGRADE FAR ENOUGH FOR THE TROUGH TO PROGRESS FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE ARK-LA-TX TO SEE ANY IMPACTS. AS SUCH, THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST IS UP IN THE AIR DEPENDING ON HOW UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING BEHAVE.
THURSDAY WILL RETURN TO THE PREVIOUSLY DEFINED NORMAL, WITH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING AREAS EAST OF I-49. THE WESTERN
HIGH SEEMS TO REINTENSIFY BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL PREVENT
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR REGION GENERALLY WEST OF
RUSTON, LA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK SEEM TO
BE FAVORING THE MID-UPPER 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
/57/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
FOR THE 07/00Z TAF PERIOD, SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS ONGOING
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR AIRSPACE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT VCTS INCLUDED AT A FEW TERMINALS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH KELD ALSO HAVING TEMPO TSRA
GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THIS
TAF CYCLE, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME PATCHY FOG
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK IN AREAS WHERE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED TODAY. FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD, LOOK FOR AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD ONCE
AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH VCTS STARTING AROUND 07/21Z. WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY FROM THE S/SW BETWEEN 5-10 KTS ALTHOUGH LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE INVOF CONVECTION.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 95 76 93 / 20 40 20 60
MLU 74 96 74 94 / 20 40 10 60
DEQ 71 93 71 91 / 0 30 10 50
TXK 76 96 74 94 / 10 30 10 50
ELD 73 96 72 93 / 20 40 20 60
TYR 74 93 74 91 / 0 20 0 40
GGG 74 94 74 92 / 0 30 10 50
LFK 73 94 74 93 / 20 30 10 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19
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