546  
FXUS64 KSHV 070030  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
730 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK BACK UP TODAY,  
GENERALLY KEEPING EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, BEGINNING A RINSE  
AND REPEAT PATTERN WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS  
FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
- STORMS MAY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE  
WEEK AS A TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHWARD.  
 
- HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT,  
WITH A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
THE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK: HOT  
TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT WILL  
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE CASE TONIGHT, WITH  
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 70S ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES OFF.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID  
90S ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY THAT WILL MAKE APPARENT  
TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. I WILL STILL HOLD OFF  
ON ISSUING ANY HEAT PRODUCTS, AS CURRENT ESTIMATES HAVE US JUST  
SHY OF CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
THE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN NORTHWEST MEXICO AND  
PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND HELP  
KEEP AREAS OF EAST TEXAS DRY TOMORROW. RECENT RUNS OF THE NBM  
HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST EARLIER THAN  
PREVIOUSLY SHOWN, BEGINNING ON TUESDAY INSTEAD OF WEDNESDAY. THIS  
IS DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING  
TO THE WEST, WHICH WILL OPEN EAST TEXAS TO MORE OF THE DIURNAL  
AND SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS THAT OTHER AREAS OF THE REGION HAVE SEEN  
RECENTLY. RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE ALSO HAD THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT  
PREVIOUSLY WAS CENTERED OVER IA/MO MOVING FURTHER SOUTH ON  
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAKE  
ADVANTAGE OF THE WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND KEEP RAIN CONTINUING  
FOR OUR NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT ON TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD DEPEND, HOWEVER ON THE HIGH PRESSURE  
OUT WEST TO RETROGRADE FAR ENOUGH FOR THE TROUGH TO PROGRESS FAR  
ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE ARK-LA-TX TO SEE ANY IMPACTS. AS SUCH, THIS  
PART OF THE FORECAST IS UP IN THE AIR DEPENDING ON HOW UPPER-LEVEL  
FORCING BEHAVE.  
 
THURSDAY WILL RETURN TO THE PREVIOUSLY DEFINED NORMAL, WITH  
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING AREAS EAST OF I-49. THE WESTERN  
HIGH SEEMS TO REINTENSIFY BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL PREVENT  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR REGION GENERALLY WEST OF  
RUSTON, LA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK SEEM TO  
BE FAVORING THE MID-UPPER 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 70S.  
 
/57/  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
FOR THE 07/00Z TAF PERIOD, SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS ONGOING  
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR AIRSPACE EARLY THIS  
EVENING. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT VCTS INCLUDED AT A FEW TERMINALS FOR  
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH KELD ALSO HAVING TEMPO TSRA  
GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE  
GENERALLY PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER CONVECTIVE  
DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THIS  
TAF CYCLE, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME PATCHY FOG  
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK IN AREAS WHERE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED TODAY. FOR  
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD, LOOK FOR AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD ONCE  
AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH VCTS STARTING AROUND 07/21Z. WINDS WILL BE  
PRIMARILY FROM THE S/SW BETWEEN 5-10 KTS ALTHOUGH LIGHTER AND MORE  
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE INVOF CONVECTION.  
 
/19/  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
SHV 77 95 76 93 / 20 40 20 60  
MLU 74 96 74 94 / 20 40 10 60  
DEQ 71 93 71 91 / 0 30 10 50  
TXK 76 96 74 94 / 10 30 10 50  
ELD 73 96 72 93 / 20 40 20 60  
TYR 74 93 74 91 / 0 20 0 40  
GGG 74 94 74 92 / 0 30 10 50  
LFK 73 94 74 93 / 20 30 10 60  
 
 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...57  
AVIATION...19  
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