566
FXUS64 KSHV 071139
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
639 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, GENERALLY
KEEPING EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, A "RINSE AND REPEAT" PATTERN
WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
- STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
OZARKS.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT,
WITH A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
AS ONE OF OUR FORMER FORECASTERS LIKES TO SAY, "IF YOU'VE READ
ONE AFD LATELY, YOU'VE READ 'EM ALL." WE ARE WELL AND TRULY IN THE
DEPTHS OF SUMMER, AND THE RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLAY EVERY DAY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY DEVIATION FROM THAT ROUTINE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION, AS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO APPEAR IN STORE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON'S THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE DISTRIBUTED OVER A SIMILAR
COVERAGE AREA TO YESTERDAY'S WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, AND EAST TEXAS REMAINING
COMPARABLY DRIER, WITH ISOLATED STORMS IF ANY. LIKE WITH RECENT NEAR-
TERM FORECASTS, ELECTED TO MORE WIDELY DISTRIBUTE CHC AND SCHC POPS,
ACCOUNTING FOR RECENT OVERPERFORMANCE IN THE WAY OF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB FROM THE LOW
TO MID 70S THIS MORNING TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AT SITES WHERE CONVECTION IS SLOW TO DEVELOP OR ARRIVE, READINGS
APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST AT OUR LOUISIANA SITES.
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ATTEMPTING TO ENCLOSE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES, BEFORE LOSING
ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, THEN ORGANIZING ITSELF AGAIN. THE
POSITIONING OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FROM DAY TO DAY WILL BE
VERY CONSEQUENTIAL TO OUR FORECAST, AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE'S INFLUENCE WILL EITHER INHIBIT OR ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION, DEPENDING ON ITS REACH, AND POSSIBLY
PERMIT THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE FROM THE NORTH BY MID
WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-
20 CORRIDOR, AS MODELS PICK UP ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO THE CLASSIC
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WHICH IS DEFINING MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE:
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON A DAILY BASIS,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. HIGHS THROUGH
MIDWEEK WILL STILL BE WARM BUT LESS EXTREME THAN RECENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED, WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE 90S. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES
A BIT OF A WARMING TREND POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW UPPER
90S RETURNING TO THE MAXT GRIDS, ESPECIALLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
FOR THE 07/12Z TAF UPDATE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUING LIGHT WINDS AND A CHANCE OF
VCTS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE BY 07/21Z-08/02Z. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 76 93 76 / 30 20 50 20
MLU 97 74 95 75 / 30 20 60 20
DEQ 93 71 91 71 / 40 20 50 20
TXK 96 74 94 74 / 30 20 50 20
ELD 95 72 92 72 / 30 20 50 20
TYR 92 75 92 74 / 20 10 40 10
GGG 94 74 93 74 / 20 10 50 20
LFK 93 74 93 74 / 30 20 50 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...16
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