566  
FXUS64 KSHV 071139  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
639 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, GENERALLY  
KEEPING EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, A "RINSE AND REPEAT" PATTERN  
WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
- STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE NORTH DURING THE  
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE  
OZARKS.  
 
- HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT,  
WITH A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
AS ONE OF OUR FORMER FORECASTERS LIKES TO SAY, "IF YOU'VE READ  
ONE AFD LATELY, YOU'VE READ 'EM ALL." WE ARE WELL AND TRULY IN THE  
DEPTHS OF SUMMER, AND THE RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN OF AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLAY EVERY DAY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS  
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY DEVIATION FROM THAT ROUTINE WILL BE IN  
THE FORM OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION, AS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN  
CONTINUES TO APPEAR IN STORE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON'S THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE DISTRIBUTED OVER A SIMILAR  
COVERAGE AREA TO YESTERDAY'S WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL  
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, AND EAST TEXAS REMAINING  
COMPARABLY DRIER, WITH ISOLATED STORMS IF ANY. LIKE WITH RECENT NEAR-  
TERM FORECASTS, ELECTED TO MORE WIDELY DISTRIBUTE CHC AND SCHC POPS,  
ACCOUNTING FOR RECENT OVERPERFORMANCE IN THE WAY OF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN  
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB FROM THE LOW  
TO MID 70S THIS MORNING TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON.  
AT SITES WHERE CONVECTION IS SLOW TO DEVELOP OR ARRIVE, READINGS  
APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND  
EAST AT OUR LOUISIANA SITES.  
 
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE  
ATTEMPTING TO ENCLOSE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN  
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR  
CORNERS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES, BEFORE LOSING  
ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, THEN ORGANIZING ITSELF AGAIN. THE  
POSITIONING OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FROM DAY TO DAY WILL BE  
VERY CONSEQUENTIAL TO OUR FORECAST, AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE  
HIGH PRESSURE'S INFLUENCE WILL EITHER INHIBIT OR ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON  
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION, DEPENDING ON ITS REACH, AND POSSIBLY  
PERMIT THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE FROM THE NORTH BY MID  
WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOWS A  
NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-  
20 CORRIDOR, AS MODELS PICK UP ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS.  
 
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO THE CLASSIC  
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WHICH IS DEFINING MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE:  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON A DAILY BASIS,  
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. HIGHS THROUGH  
MIDWEEK WILL STILL BE WARM BUT LESS EXTREME THAN RECENT GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTED, WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE 90S. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES  
A BIT OF A WARMING TREND POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW UPPER  
90S RETURNING TO THE MAXT GRIDS, ESPECIALLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,  
WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT.  
 
/26/  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
FOR THE 07/12Z TAF UPDATE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUING LIGHT WINDS AND A CHANCE OF  
VCTS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE BY 07/21Z-08/02Z. /16/  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
SHV 95 76 93 76 / 30 20 50 20  
MLU 97 74 95 75 / 30 20 60 20  
DEQ 93 71 91 71 / 40 20 50 20  
TXK 96 74 94 74 / 30 20 50 20  
ELD 95 72 92 72 / 30 20 50 20  
TYR 92 75 92 74 / 20 10 40 10  
GGG 94 74 93 74 / 20 10 50 20  
LFK 93 74 93 74 / 30 20 50 10  
 
 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...26  
AVIATION...16  
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