789
FXUS64 KSHV 071835
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
135 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
- UPDATES TO SOME HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAS BOOSTED HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO ABOVE 105, A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BENEFIT MANY LOCALS
AND KEEP OUTCOMES ISOLATED TIMEFRAME IN OUR VARIOUS ZONE
GROUPINGS. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND WILL LIMIT COVERAGE ON
TUESDAY.
- THESE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF
OUR FOUR-STATE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH DROPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD.
- HIGHS WILL SEE MORE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DROP BACK TO
LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH MIDWEEK. WE WILL DRY OUT AND BOOST AIR
TEMPS BACK TO UPPER 90S BY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ARE PICKING UP NOW. AIR TEMPS ARE RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH SOME DRIER DEW POINTS ALREADY MIXING IN AT THE NOON HOUR.
HEAT INDEX CALCULATIONS ARE GOING TO BE PEAKING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILD AND THE MIDDECK CONTINUES TO
SCATTER AND THIN. COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEST YESTERDAY'S EFFORT IN COVERAGE.
A WEAK COOL FRONT LIES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY
AND WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY WITH FALLING UPPER LEVELS HEIGHTS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS TODAY AND MUCH OF OUR I-20
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SAGGING DOWN OVER AR TODAY AND TOMORROW AND
CONTINUE SINKING INTO THE ARKLATEX BY MIDWEEK ON THEIR DAY 3
OUTLOOK. SO WE ARE ALL LOOKING FORWARD TO AN UPTICK IN AREA
RAINFALL TO HELP OUR DRYING SOILS.
THE WEAKNESS PATTERN ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
AS THE MAIN UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE DESERT SW U.S. AND
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THE BERMUDA RIDGE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK INLAND OVER THE SE
U.S. WE ARE DEALING WITH OUR LONGEST DAYS AND SHORTEST NIGHTS NOW
WITH SOIL TEMPS CONTINUING TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S DURING
THE OVERNIGHTS. SO WHILE TEMPS WILL EASE BACK SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
ADDED CLOUDS AND RAINFALL, MOST LOCALES WILL KEEP TO MID 70S AND
LOW TO MID 90S GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PICTURE WITH
MORE UPPER 90S MIXING IN BY THE WEEKEND AS OUR RAINS DRY UP ONCE
AGAIN. /24/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
AGITATED CU FIELD IS EVOLVING THIS AFTERNOON AS VCTS WILL LIKELY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR MANY TERMINALS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ELECTED TO INCLUDE TEMPO PERIODS TO SELECT
TERMINALS GIVEN HI-RES SUPPORT AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TSRA IS TO BE EXPECTED AS THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION PREVAILS THROUGH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT, REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS WILL CARRY AHEAD OF ANOTHER AFTERNOON CU FIELD ON TUESDAY.
TERMINAL WINDS WILL HOLD A S/SW APPEARANCE, BETWEEN 5-10KT.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 94 75 92 / 20 60 30 60
MLU 74 94 74 93 / 20 50 20 70
DEQ 71 89 70 91 / 20 50 20 40
TXK 75 93 74 93 / 20 50 20 50
ELD 72 92 72 90 / 20 60 30 70
TYR 74 92 73 93 / 10 40 20 50
GGG 74 92 73 92 / 10 50 20 60
LFK 73 93 73 93 / 10 60 20 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53
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