789  
FXUS64 KSHV 071835  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
135 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
- UPDATES TO SOME HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAS BOOSTED HEAT  
INDEX VALUES TO ABOVE 105, A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN  
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BENEFIT MANY LOCALS  
AND KEEP OUTCOMES ISOLATED TIMEFRAME IN OUR VARIOUS ZONE  
GROUPINGS. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND WILL LIMIT COVERAGE ON  
TUESDAY.  
 
- THESE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF  
OUR FOUR-STATE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR  
NORTH DROPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD.  
 
- HIGHS WILL SEE MORE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DROP BACK TO  
LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH MIDWEEK. WE WILL DRY OUT AND BOOST AIR  
TEMPS BACK TO UPPER 90S BY LATER THIS WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST  
ARE PICKING UP NOW. AIR TEMPS ARE RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S  
WITH SOME DRIER DEW POINTS ALREADY MIXING IN AT THE NOON HOUR.  
HEAT INDEX CALCULATIONS ARE GOING TO BE PEAKING EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON AS THE CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILD AND THE MIDDECK CONTINUES TO  
SCATTER AND THIN. COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEST YESTERDAY'S EFFORT IN COVERAGE.  
 
A WEAK COOL FRONT LIES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY  
AND WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY WITH FALLING UPPER LEVELS HEIGHTS  
EXTENDING DOWN INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS TODAY AND MUCH OF OUR I-20  
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SAGGING DOWN OVER AR TODAY AND TOMORROW AND  
CONTINUE SINKING INTO THE ARKLATEX BY MIDWEEK ON THEIR DAY 3  
OUTLOOK. SO WE ARE ALL LOOKING FORWARD TO AN UPTICK IN AREA  
RAINFALL TO HELP OUR DRYING SOILS.  
 
THE WEAKNESS PATTERN ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY  
AS THE MAIN UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE DESERT SW U.S. AND  
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL CYCLONE  
CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THE BERMUDA RIDGE INTO THE MID  
ATLANTIC STATES WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK INLAND OVER THE SE  
U.S. WE ARE DEALING WITH OUR LONGEST DAYS AND SHORTEST NIGHTS NOW  
WITH SOIL TEMPS CONTINUING TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S DURING  
THE OVERNIGHTS. SO WHILE TEMPS WILL EASE BACK SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE  
ADDED CLOUDS AND RAINFALL, MOST LOCALES WILL KEEP TO MID 70S AND  
LOW TO MID 90S GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PICTURE WITH  
MORE UPPER 90S MIXING IN BY THE WEEKEND AS OUR RAINS DRY UP ONCE  
AGAIN. /24/  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
AGITATED CU FIELD IS EVOLVING THIS AFTERNOON AS VCTS WILL LIKELY  
BECOME A FOCUS FOR MANY TERMINALS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. ELECTED TO INCLUDE TEMPO PERIODS TO SELECT  
TERMINALS GIVEN HI-RES SUPPORT AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS.  
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TSRA IS TO BE EXPECTED AS THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
CONVECTION PREVAILS THROUGH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT, REMNANT CLOUD  
DEBRIS WILL CARRY AHEAD OF ANOTHER AFTERNOON CU FIELD ON TUESDAY.  
TERMINAL WINDS WILL HOLD A S/SW APPEARANCE, BETWEEN 5-10KT.  
 
KNAPP  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
SHV 76 94 75 92 / 20 60 30 60  
MLU 74 94 74 93 / 20 50 20 70  
DEQ 71 89 70 91 / 20 50 20 40  
TXK 75 93 74 93 / 20 50 20 50  
ELD 72 92 72 90 / 20 60 30 70  
TYR 74 92 73 93 / 10 40 20 50  
GGG 74 92 73 92 / 10 50 20 60  
LFK 73 93 73 93 / 10 60 20 60  
 
 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...24  
AVIATION...53  
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