390
FXUS64 KSHV 080543
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1243 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX TODAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH
TOMORROW, AND A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
NORTH OF I-30 TODAY.
- HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
THIS TUESDAY WILL FIND THE ARKLATEX SITUATED BETWEEN TWO LARGE AREAS
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, ONE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ONE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH, MOVING OFFSHORE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED AREAS OF RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO SWING SOUTH OVER THE OZARKS DURING THE DAY TODAY.
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN
PLACE, ONLY LIFTING BARELY TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
CONCURRENTLY, THE FLOW AROUND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST HIGH LOOKS TO AID
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLIFY SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION LOOKS TO HELP SUSTAIN NOT ONLY OUR
BUSY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE REGIME WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLAY THESE PAST
FEW DAYS, BUT ADDITIONAL FORCING-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS,
BEGINNING AS SOON AS THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST, SPREADING
AREAWIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME DIMINISHMENT IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT, BUT AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
CAN EXPECT CONTINUED RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AREAWIDE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SIMILARLY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT BUT NOT
DIMINISHING ENTIRELY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RENEWED ACTIVITY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS FORECAST SHAPING UP TO INDICATE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUSTAINED RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION, OUR
NORTHERN HALF IS OUTLOOKED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
TODAY AND TOMORROW. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE TODAY,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30, THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WE LOOK TO SEE A RETURN TO THE CLASSIC
SUMMERTIME PATTERN: AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ON A DAILY BASIS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR EAST,
EVENTUALLY ALSO NORTH AND SOUTH, WITH THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF TEXAS
LOOKING THE DRIEST THROUGHOUT, DEPENDING ON THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE INFLUENCE OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS MORNING
TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF
PROLONGED CHANGES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS LOOKS TO
KEEP HIGHS AT THESE SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES THROUGH THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AS WE RETURN TO THE FAMILIAR PATTERN OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
FOR THE 08/00Z TAF PERIOD, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
LESSEN IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER LINGERING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD MAINTAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT WILL BE WATCHING OUT FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, LOWER
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON TUESDAY WITH A CU FIELD BLOSSOMING TOWARD
MIDDAY AND SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.
FOR NOW, HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL SITES BY AROUND 08/21Z.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
THEN TRENDING BACK S/SW BETWEEN 5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS INVOF CONVECTION.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 92 76 90 76 / 60 30 70 30
MLU 95 74 91 73 / 50 30 80 30
DEQ 89 71 88 70 / 60 30 50 10
TXK 92 73 91 73 / 70 30 60 10
ELD 92 71 87 71 / 60 30 80 20
TYR 91 74 91 73 / 50 20 60 20
GGG 91 73 91 74 / 60 30 70 20
LFK 92 73 92 74 / 50 30 60 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19
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