790
FXUS64 KSHV 090647
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
147 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY.
- ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EXCESSIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL.
- UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
COULD RESULT IN HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES BY THE END OF THE
7-DAY FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
STILL DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DISSIPATING BUT WE WILL
LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE
NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR DUE TO AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH THAT
REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE IS WEDGED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PWATS UPWARDS
OF 2 INCHES REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS OUR REGION AS WELL
SO ALL WE NEED IS SOME DIURNAL HEATING AND YOU HAVE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN FOR TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE AREA APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
PWAT SHOULD RESIDE.
THESE INGREDIENTS SHIFT EVERY SO SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THURSDAY AND
THUS, THE HIGHEST POPS THU/THU EVNG SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR REGION. BY FRIDAY, THE REMNANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INFILTRATE OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN POP
COVERAGE WITH POPS DELEGATED TO OUR FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES
ONLY FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TAPERED SOMEWHAT TODAY BY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BUT NOT TO THE EXTREME THE NBM SUGGESTS. SLIGHTLY LESSER
STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY MEANS HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY RANGING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S AREAWIDE.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
PWAT FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COMBINED WITH OUR WEAK SHEAR AXIS IN
PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
DID NOT STRAY FROM NBM POPS OR TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE
UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON
SATURDAY INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BEGIN TO SETUP ACROSS THE HEART OF OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CRITICAL HEAT INDICES AND THE
POSSIBLE RETURN TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO START THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
13
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
FOR THE 09/06Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH VCTS RETURNING FROM 08/18Z TO
09/00Z AS SOUTHERLY WINDS SLACKEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE NOT FORECAST. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN AREA FLOODING.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 75 94 77 / 60 50 50 20
MLU 94 73 93 74 / 60 50 60 30
DEQ 92 70 94 71 / 30 20 20 10
TXK 96 74 96 75 / 40 30 30 10
ELD 91 70 92 72 / 50 40 50 20
TYR 92 73 94 75 / 60 50 30 10
GGG 93 73 94 75 / 60 50 40 10
LFK 94 73 94 73 / 60 50 40 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...16
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