453
FXUS64 KSHV 100123
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
823 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
- ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
- UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
COULD RESULT IN HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES BY THE END OF THE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STRETCHING
SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AT THIS TIME,
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE RADAR ECHOES ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. CONVECTION TO
INCREASE WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND NORTH LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES. OTHERWISE, WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE EXPECTED
JULY HIGHS, AVERAGING AROUND 90 DEGREES AREAWIDE.
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THOUGH LATE EVENING HOURS WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO AVERAGE IN
THE LOWER 70S.
UPPER-TROUGH TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER ROUND AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER-RIDGE
ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL EVENTUALLY
MERGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY SATURDAY, RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WITH THE ONSET OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS
AND NORTH LOUISIANA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON PROMPTING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR HEAT HEADLINES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-RIDGE BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS NEARING TRIPLE DIGITS BY TUESDAY.
/05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
FOR THE 10/00Z TAF PERIOD, SCATTERED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON HAS INDUCED ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THIS CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND EXPECT LESS CONVECTION
OVERALL ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY BUT HAVE INSERTED VCTS AT
KSHV/KMLU/KLFK TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR MORE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AIRSPACE. S/SW WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
BETWEEN 4-8 KTS ON AVERAGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS INVOF CONVECTION.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 94 77 96 / 40 40 10 10
MLU 73 93 75 96 / 40 60 30 30
DEQ 70 93 71 94 / 10 20 10 0
TXK 74 96 76 98 / 20 20 10 0
ELD 70 93 72 96 / 30 40 20 10
TYR 73 94 75 94 / 30 20 10 0
GGG 73 94 75 94 / 30 30 10 10
LFK 73 94 73 95 / 40 40 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...19
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