881
FXUS64 KSHV 101049
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
549 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
- ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
- RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CRITICAL HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE AND THE RETURN OF HEAT ADVISORIES
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF INCREASED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
TODAY WITH THE KEY INGREDIENTS BEING AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
EMANATING FROM THE TENN VALLEY, SOUTH AND WEST INTO SE TX AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY, THUS
AREAS VIRTUALLY VOID OF CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE TX, INTO ALL OF N LA AND INTO
FAR S AND SE AR. EXTRAPOLATING THAT OUT, IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THAT
THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHERN, SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES. THIS IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT
WITH LATEST NBM OUTPUT BUT MORE SO WITH THE LATEST HREF AS IT HAS
HANDLED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE QUITE WELL THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THE
ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS. THUS, POP DISTRIBUTION WILL RANGE FROM
ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG AND NEAR THE I-30 CORRIDOR TO LOW END LIKELY
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR SE ZONES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, HAVE HELD ONTO SMALL POPS BEYOND 00Z THIS EVENING AS THE NBM
WANTS TO DIMINISH CONVECTION TOO QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. DRIER AIR
PUSHES INTO OUR WESTERN 2/3RDS FOR FRIDAY EVEN THROUGH A WEAKENED
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO LOW
END CHANCE VARIETY ONLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN THIRD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS FAR WEST AS ALONG A LUFKIN, SHREVEPORT, PRESCOTT LINE.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO NBM TEMPS AS IT HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE
ON TEMPERED VALUES WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES WITH A NOTICEABLE RISE ACROSS MOST ALL AREAS WITH DIMINISHED
CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING AND/OR
RETROGRADING WESTWARD FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH OUR PRESENT SHEAR AXIS NORTH AND WEST AS WELL BUT THERE WILL BE
POCKETS OF HIGHER PWAT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO
WARRANT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS OUR REGION BOTH DAYS.
AS WE BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, THE CENTER OF A DIRTY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY INTO THE
TENN VALLEY BUT THE WORD DIRTY WILL BEST DESCRIBE THIS FEATURE AS
THERE WILL BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE PRESENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS IF NOT BY
MONDAY, THEN DEFINITELY BY TUE INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS A
RETURN TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAT ADVISORIES AS CRITICAL HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY BE MET.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
FOR THE 10/12Z TAF UPDATE, PATCHY MVFR/IFR WILL MIX OUT TO VFR
VIS/CIGS BY 10/15Z, PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
VCTS RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FROM 10/18Z TO 11/00Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE 5 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE NOT FORECAST. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN AREA FLOODING.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 94 76 97 77 / 40 30 20 0
MLU 92 73 96 75 / 60 30 30 10
DEQ 93 72 94 72 / 10 10 0 0
TXK 96 75 98 76 / 30 10 10 0
ELD 93 72 96 73 / 40 20 20 10
TYR 94 75 94 74 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 93 75 95 74 / 30 20 10 0
LFK 92 73 94 74 / 50 30 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...16
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