897
FXUS64 KSHV 120336
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1036 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
- OVERALL TREND OF LESS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS AND TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
- NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AND WITH CRITICAL DAYTIME HEAT INDICES, HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH
TEMPERATURES NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS AROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES IN TEXAS AND ARKANSAS, A LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THESE AREAS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MESOSCALE LOW
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT, DRIFTING NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI
ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BE THE SOURCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES IN TEXAS AND ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT MIGRATES EAST INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING
THE NUANCES OF MESOSCALE FACTORS THAT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, HEAT HEADLINES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLATEX FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND ONWARD AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACH 105 DEGREES. /05/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD IN WAKE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK, BRINGING REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING, BUT
WIDESPREAD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 95 77 95 / 30 50 10 30
MLU 75 96 75 96 / 20 30 10 30
DEQ 72 92 71 90 / 10 40 40 50
TXK 76 97 75 95 / 20 40 30 40
ELD 74 95 73 93 / 20 40 10 40
TYR 75 94 74 93 / 40 40 20 40
GGG 74 94 74 94 / 40 50 20 30
LFK 74 94 74 94 / 40 70 10 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...20
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