867
FXUS64 KSHV 121130
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
- AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION AND THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL.
- RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING
WITH HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY BECOMING NECESSARY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION COMPARED TO WHAT WE WITNESSED ON FRIDAY AND
THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AS OUR REGION IS WEDGED BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
NE GULF OF AMERICA AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION OF THE COUNTRY. OUR REGION HOWEVER IS MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST THAN THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST WHERE THERE IS A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND EXCESSIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL. OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL BE TICKLED BY THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT BUT FOR THE MOST PART, THAT THREAT SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY TO OUR WEST WHERE FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENT IN EFFECT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. LOOK FOR A RATHER ACTIVE
SEABREEZE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY PUSHING POPS
UPWARDS TO CHANCE CATEGORY AREAWIDE. WHILE MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO DAYTIME HEATING, SCATTERED CONVECTION
COULD CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY TO UPPER FORCING WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST.
THE INFLATED RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND MAY ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO
BE SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ARE STILL A
PRETTY GOOD BET BOTH DAYS.
AS WE START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING TO OUR EAST BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF SLIGHTLY
INFLATED POPS ON MONDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE SUBSIDENCE
EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF HIGHER TEMPS. MAX AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON TUE AND WED WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
TEMPS NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS IS MORE ON BOARD WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE INFLUENCING OUR REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE WED THRU FRI WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT QUITE
ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER RIDGING
HOLDING FIRM ACROSS OUR REGION. THE GFS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A
MUCH WETTER/MILDER LATE NEXT WEEK PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF JUST THE
OPPOSITE WITH NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CONTINUING WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE NBM IS OFFERING A NICE SOLUTION BETWEEN THESE
TWO DETERMINISTIC MODELS ATTM AND THAT IS WHAT OUR LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL SHOW.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
FOR THE 12/12Z TAFS, AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE,
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK,
FOLLOWED BY SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. LOOKING FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
AREA AIRSPACE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KTS
POSSIBLE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE NOT FORECAST. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN AREA FLOODING.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 94 77 95 77 / 50 20 30 20
MLU 96 74 96 76 / 40 20 30 20
DEQ 92 71 90 71 / 50 50 60 20
TXK 96 75 95 75 / 40 40 40 20
ELD 94 73 94 73 / 40 30 40 20
TYR 93 74 94 75 / 50 30 40 20
GGG 93 74 95 74 / 50 30 40 20
LFK 93 74 94 74 / 50 20 40 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
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