591
FXUS64 KSHV 121646
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
- AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION AND THAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.
- RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE GULF COULD INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS
WILL BRING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE THE ARKLATEX THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS,
SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE I-30 CORRIDOR. ELSEWHERE, MOST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE DIURNALLY GENERATED AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH POSSIBLE SEABREEZE
FORCING.
WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY,
INCREASED INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE LED TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF PERIODIC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SUPPORTIVE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. DUE TO THE DYNAMICALLY SHIFTING MODEL TRENDS
REGARDING TIMING OF CONVECTION, WENT AHEAD AND INCORPORATED A
GENERALIZED WET BIAS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS AS AN
UPPER-RIDGE TO THE EAST RETROGRADES WEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO DRIVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK
INTO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WORKWEEK AS MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
DIVERGE OVER A DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF AMERICA THAT MAY BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHOULD
THE RIDGE INSTEAD HOLD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, HOTTER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO
OFFER MORE CERTAINTY REGARDING THE THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
05
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
FOR THE 12/12Z TAFS, AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE,
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK,
FOLLOWED BY SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. LOOKING FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
AREA AIRSPACE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KTS
POSSIBLE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE NOT FORECAST. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN AREA FLOODING.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 94 77 95 77 / 50 30 40 20
MLU 96 74 96 76 / 40 30 40 10
DEQ 91 71 90 71 / 50 70 70 30
TXK 95 75 95 75 / 40 50 40 30
ELD 93 73 94 73 / 40 30 40 20
TYR 93 75 93 74 / 50 40 40 20
GGG 93 74 94 74 / 50 30 40 20
LFK 93 74 94 74 / 50 10 40 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...26
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