669
FXUS64 KSHV 131130
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
- ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY.
- MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE WORK WEEK CONTINUES.
- WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN TO WARM WITH NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE LATER
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
CAN'T COMPLAIN ABOUT RAINFALL IN JULY AS WE COULD BE DEALING WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS BUT UNFORTUNATELY WITH
THE STORMS CAN SOMETIMES COME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WE
SAW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND SE OK ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY
DEALING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN LINED UP ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AND WHILE THESE
STORMS ARE NOT SEVERE, THEY ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND THUS WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LOCAL AREA FLOODING AS WE
APPROACH SUNRISE. THE PLAYERS IN THE CREATION OF ALL THIS
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS WHICH IS WEDGED IN BETWEEN UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE NE GULF OF AMERICA AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT BASIN. PVA JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS PROVIDING THE
NECESSARY LIFT WHICH HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH A MOISTURE TONGUE OF
2+ INCH PWATS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THE CONVECTION CONTRACTS TOWARDS THE UPPER TROUGH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AID OF A 30KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET BUT WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE THIS
CONVECTION EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST, ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF OUR
REGION TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POCKETS OF INSTABILITY. FOR THAT REASON,
DID RAISE NBM POPS SLIGHTLY AREAWIDE GIVEN HOW COVERAGE WAS ON
SATURDAY AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS
ARE STILL IN PLACE TODAY.
FOR MONDAY, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DOES BEGIN TO FILL SLIGHTLY BUT AS
IT DOES, IT'S CLOSER TO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND THEREFORE, OUR
NORTHWEST HALF WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
NBM LEAD OF CURTAILING POPS BACK TO ISOLATED/LOW END CHANCE
VARIETY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN HALF ONLY AS THERE IS
STILL A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR TUESDAY
BUT TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE A TRANSITION
DAY FOR HOTTER TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS SCENARIO IS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
THAT MAY TRY TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES, HUGGING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WED INTO THU. IF THIS
PATTERN HOLDS TRUE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY
OF HIGHER POPS IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME BUT FOR NOW, WILL
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE DRIER NBM WHICH HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH
THE DRIER OPERATIONAL ECMWF THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE EXTENDED
PACKAGE. IF THIS DRIER, HOTTER PATTERN VERIFIES, THEN WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BY MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH
COMBINED WITH HIGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WOULD PRODUCE HEAT INDICES
WORTHY OF HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
FOR THE 13/12Z TAFS, AREAS OF THE TYPICAL DAYBREAK MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE DEVELOPING, LOOKING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS MIDMORNING. NORTH AND
WEST HOWEVER, CIG RECOVERY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AT BEST, AS AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHES NORTH AND EAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
AT THIS TIME, THUNDER IMPACTS BEFORE 13/18Z LOOK MOST LIKELY AT
KTXK, KTYR AND POSSIBLY KGGG, REFLECTED IN TEMPO GROUPS. STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
CIGS LOOK TO RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT BEFORE LOWERING ONCE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY, WITH
GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE, AND STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE NOT FORECAST. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN AREA FLOODING.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 94 76 94 77 / 60 30 40 10
MLU 93 75 95 75 / 50 20 40 0
DEQ 86 70 87 70 / 70 50 50 10
TXK 92 73 93 74 / 60 40 40 10
ELD 93 72 92 73 / 60 30 50 10
TYR 90 73 90 74 / 60 40 30 10
GGG 92 73 92 74 / 60 30 40 10
LFK 93 74 94 74 / 60 30 40 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
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