159
FXUS64 KSHV 140517
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1217 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
- ONE MORE DAY OF MOSTLY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
BEFORE WE SEE AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES.
- SOME AREAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING AND OR EXCEEDING
TRIPLE DIGITS ON TUESDAY BUT ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- COULD TROPICAL MOISTURE BE IN OUR FUTURE FOR LATE WEEK?
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF STORMS ON SUNDAY WITH SOME OF THESE
PRODUCING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UPROOTING TREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. WHILE THE
BEST UPPER FORCING WILL BE FOUND NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR GIVEN THE REMAINING SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THIS AREA, PWAT
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AWAIT
SUFFICIENT DAYTIME INSTABILITY FOR THE GENERATION OF THIS
CONVECTION BUT STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY CLOSER TO THE SHEAR
AXIS ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST ZONES.
BY TUESDAY, DRIER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH IN THE FORM OF LOWER PWATS AS WE BEGIN TO BECOME MORE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL BE TIED TO A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES
AND ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. ANY SEMBLANCE OF THE SHEAR
AXIS IS GONE BY WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE. ALSO ON
WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO LOOK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST WHERE AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE TRYING TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. THE
GFS TRIES TO BRING THIS SYSTEM UNDER THE RIDGE INTO SE TX BY LATE
THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND NAM OUTPUT
HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BUT HOW CLOSE THIS SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE
COAST AND JUST HOW WELL DEVELOPED THE SYSTEM CAN BECOME WILL
DETERMINE OUR IMPACTS FROM SUCH A SYSTEM. FOR NOW, NBM IS
DEPICTING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES
BY THURSDAY AND ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD HELP WITH THE HEAT AS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT HEAT
ADVISORIES BECOMING NECESSARY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF AND THAT WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS YESTERDAY, CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING, BUT COULD STILL BRIEFLY WORSEN
CONDITIONS AS THEY PASS OVER AIRPORTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNRISE TOMORROW. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO
VFR AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS, WHICH I HAVE COMING INTO
THE REGION BY 14/18Z. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND NORTH
LOUISIANA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. /15/
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 77 97 78 / 30 20 10 0
MLU 95 75 97 76 / 30 20 20 0
DEQ 88 70 90 71 / 50 30 30 10
TXK 94 74 96 76 / 40 30 20 0
ELD 92 72 95 73 / 40 20 20 10
TYR 92 74 93 74 / 40 20 10 0
GGG 92 74 94 74 / 40 20 10 0
LFK 93 74 95 74 / 30 20 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...57
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