572
FXUS64 KSHV 142328
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
628 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
- SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION REMAINS ON TAP FOR TODAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
- HEATING TREND COMMENCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS AND DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES.
- WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR, RADAR ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING
TO EMERGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH ACCURATELY CAPTURING THESE DAILY
DIURNAL STORMS, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS POINTS TO AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF EARLIER RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR RED RIVER
AND MCCURTAIN COUNTIES. THOUGH SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS,
PARTICULARLY REGARDING STORM PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY, RECENT
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION, WE ARE MONITORING A SURGE OF SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, WHICH COULD MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATER
TODAY.
TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE “COOLEST” DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY, A
WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
CLIMBING STEADILY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE APPROACHED OR MET
IN SOME LOCATIONS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. WHILE COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES LED TO A DECISION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE FOR
NOW, FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES MAY INCLUDE HEAT HEADLINES PENDING
UPDATED GUIDANCE.
LASTLY, ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE GULF LATER THIS WEEK, AS
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR A SYSTEM TRACKING BENEATH THE
RIDGE AND APPROACHING SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME, BUT RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR UPDATES IN THE
COMING DAYS AS FORECAST CLARITY IMPROVES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
FOR THE 15/00Z TAFS, ALL SITES HAVE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH
VCTS FOR KMLU. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, DYING DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FOR MOST SITES, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK IN AREAS WITH NEAR-CALM WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER A FEW HOURS. BUT GUIDANCE HAS MORE SHOWERS
RETURNING AROUND 15/20Z. I HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE AREAS WITH
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE, BUT SOME POP-UP SHOWERS IN OTHER AREAS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND NORTH
LOUISIANA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 96 77 98 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 76 95 76 96 / 10 20 0 10
DEQ 70 89 72 93 / 30 30 0 0
TXK 75 95 76 98 / 20 20 0 0
ELD 73 93 73 96 / 20 20 0 10
TYR 74 92 74 93 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 74 94 74 95 / 20 10 0 0
LFK 73 94 73 94 / 10 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...57
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