294
FXUS64 KSHV 151138
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
638 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
- RAIN CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES TODAY AS
THE HEAT BEGINS ITS GRIP ON THE FOUR STATE REGION.
- HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, ACROSS
AT LEAST MOST OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
- WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TROPICS AS THERE IS NOW A 40% CHANCE
OF CYCLONE FORMATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT
COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THEN AS FAR NORTHWEST MCCURTAIN COUNTY
IN OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WERE A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED EARLIER
MONDAY EVENING AS THESE STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A REMNANT MCV THAT
WAS SPINNING ACROSS FAR NE TX AND SE OK EARLIER IN THE DAY.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND WITH THE CENTER
OF THIS MCV HAVING MADE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT, WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THIS FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN 12Z IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE DRIER AIR IN THE FORM OF PWATS AT OR JUST UNDER 1.5
INCHES WILL BEGIN INFILTRATING OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH TODAY
AND THAT SHOULD SQUASH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WEAKENING
REMNANT SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE. THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY BUT IT SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. BEYOND
TUESDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL BE THE KEY PLAYER ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A 2 TO 3 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE RISE AREAWIDE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION. WHEN YOU ADD
THOSE KIND OF AMBIENT TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY ELEVATED DEWPOINTS
YOU GET HEAT INDICES MEETING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES WHICH MEANS
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL MOST DEFINITELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE NEAR CRITICAL HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY BE FELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND MOST ALL OF NORTHERN
LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY SO WHILE THESE AREAS ARE MORE OF A SLAM
DUNK CONCERNING THE NECESSITY OF A HEAT ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY, WE
MAY SEE ENOUGH MIXING DOWN OF DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF NE TX SUCH
THAT MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY BE JUST BELOW THE KEY CRITERIA OF
105 DEGREES BUT BORDERING COUNTIES IN NE TX WILL BE CLOSE.
BY THURSDAY, MANY OF US WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE HEAT BUT WE
BEGIN TO LOOK TO OUR SOUTHEAST FOR RETURNING TROPICAL MOISTURE AS
WE MAY SEE AN EASTERLY WAVE TRYING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER ACROSS
THE NE GULF OF AMERICA. THIS ARE STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES IN
MODEL OUTPUT AS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP (IF AT
ALL) BUT ONE THING IS TRUE IS THAT GULF WATERS ARE VERY WARM AND
THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR TO DEAL WITH AS THIS FEATURE WILL
RIDE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR REGION. NBM HAS INCREASED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY AND ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ASSUMING THIS SYSTEM HUGS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OR TRIES TO COME
INTO SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SOMETIME IN THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, COULD SEE THE NECESSITY OF FLOOD
WATCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON JUST WHAT THE REMNANTS OF SUCH A FEATURE
WOULD DO (ASSUMING IT COMES ON SHORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT WILL
BECOME BLOCKED BY THE UPPER RIDGE AND THUS, COULD CONTINUE TO
HAMPER OUR REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE FORM OF INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES. NBM POPS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AND CONFINED TO OUR FAR
EAST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE REMNANTS OF
SAID TROPICAL FEATURE.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
FOR THE 15/06Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS, ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE BRIEF CIG REDUCTIONS WHERE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM. ANY REDUCTIONS WILL REBOUND TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF I-20,
WITH IMPACTS TO KTXK AND POSSIBLY KELD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 96 77 98 77 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 96 76 98 76 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 91 72 93 71 / 40 10 0 0
TXK 96 75 98 75 / 20 10 0 0
ELD 94 74 98 74 / 20 10 0 0
TYR 94 74 95 74 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 94 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 95 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ096.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
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