464
FXUS64 KSHV 160548
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1248 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TODAY.
- HEAT ADVISORIES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND MAY EXTEND INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- ALL EYES REMAIN HYPER-FOCUSED ON THE TROPICS AS THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE OF SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
ALTHOUGH RADAR IMAGERY HAS GONE QUIET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE IDEA THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO I HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME MENTION OF POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED IN TO THE
REGION AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
DESPITE THE HEAT TODAY, I HAVE ELECTED TO LAY IN THE BED WE MADE
AND NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS I STILL THINK
WE WILL BE BORDERLINE AT BEST. I WAS ON THE FENCE FOR WEDNESDAY
TOO, AND AFTER SOME CONSIDERATION, I DECIDED TO GO WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HEADLINES FOR DETAILS ON EXACT LOCATION. PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT
HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY FOR SOME PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN AT CRITICAL LEVELS.
OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
WON'T COME TILL LATER IN THE WEEK AND IN THE FORM OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE MODEL RUNS TODAY. I DON'T THINK MODELS WILL START TO
LEVEL OUT TILL THE SYSTEM IS FULLY IN THE GULF AND WE CAN SEE HOW
IT STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE WATERS THERE. REGARDLESS, NBM
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SYSTEM LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, BUT THE OVERALL THEME OF LOCATION AND
TIMING WILL BE REFINED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE PICTURE BECOMES
MORE CLEAR. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN WHAT OUR
TEMPERATURES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL LOOK LIKE, SO JUST
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST. /33/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
FOR THE 16/06Z TAFS, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE ONLY BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PREVENTING THE WIDESPREAD CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS WHICH HAVE BEEN SO COMMON AT DAYBREAK RECENTLY, THE
ONLY EXCEPTION BEING KLFK, WHERE BKN MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING HOURS. AN AFTERNOON CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, BUT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY ENOUGH TO BEAR
MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE DAY AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 98 77 99 78 / 0 0 10 10
MLU 98 77 98 76 / 0 0 20 10
DEQ 95 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 97 75 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 96 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 95 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 96 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 96 73 97 75 / 0 0 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...26
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