142
FXUS64 KSHV 160616
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
116 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
- HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN TODAY, EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO EAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- ALL EYES REMAIN HYPER-FOCUSED ON THE TROPICS AS THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE OF SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION, AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, ONLY EXCLUDING MCCURTAIN COUNTY (OK) AND THE
EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR EAST TEXAS COUNTIES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREAWIDE, WITH A
COUPLE ISOLATED TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS
WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN GULF.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SFC FEATURE
DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS LOW COULD DEVELOP SOME TROPICAL FEATURES
AS IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ISN'T CONSENSUS ON WHERE THIS SYSTEM
MOVES BEYOND THURSDAY, AS SOME MODELS BRING IT ONSHORE IN
LOUISIANA, WHILE SOME PUSH IT TOWARDS THE TEXAS GULF COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS, THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA ZONES, WHICH HAS
PROMPTED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ISSUE A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR FORECAST AS WE APPROACH
THIS EVENT FOR UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION, AS FLOOD PRODUCTS COULD BE
NEEDED.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY, HUMID, AND HOT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS POSSIBLE. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, AS HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 DEGREES OVER THE MOST OF
THE AREA. /20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
FOR THE 16/06Z TAFS, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE ONLY BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PREVENTING THE WIDESPREAD CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS WHICH HAVE BEEN SO COMMON AT DAYBREAK RECENTLY, THE
ONLY EXCEPTION BEING KLFK, WHERE BKN MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING HOURS. AN AFTERNOON CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, BUT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY ENOUGH TO BEAR
MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE DAY AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 98 77 99 78 / 0 0 10 10
MLU 98 77 98 76 / 0 0 20 10
DEQ 95 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 97 75 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 96 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 95 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 96 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 96 73 97 75 / 0 0 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...26
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