047
FXUS64 KSHV 161824
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
124 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
- HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN TODAY, EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO EAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- ALL EYES REMAIN HYPER-FOCUSED ON THE TROPICS AS THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE OF SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION, AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, ONLY EXCLUDING MCCURTAIN COUNTY (OK) AND THE
EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR EAST TEXAS COUNTIES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREAWIDE, WITH A
COUPLE ISOLATED TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS
WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN GULF.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SFC FEATURE
DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS LOW COULD DEVELOP SOME TROPICAL FEATURES
AS IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ISN'T CONSENSUS ON WHERE THIS SYSTEM
MOVES BEYOND THURSDAY, AS SOME MODELS BRING IT ONSHORE IN
LOUISIANA, WHILE SOME PUSH IT TOWARDS THE TEXAS GULF COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS, THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA ZONES, WHICH HAS
PROMPTED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ISSUE A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR FORECAST AS WE APPROACH
THIS EVENT FOR UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION, AS FLOOD PRODUCTS COULD BE
NEEDED.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY, HUMID, AND HOT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS POSSIBLE. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, AS HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 DEGREES OVER THE MOST OF
THE AREA. /20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK INTO MID
MORNING. SLIM RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR NOW, BUT WILL RAMP UP FOR
OUR SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GULF COASTAL LOW
MOVING INLAND. S/SW WINDS TODAY VARY FROM 5-15KT AND WILL BACK TO
S/SE THIS CYCLE. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 98 79 96 / 0 10 10 50
MLU 76 97 76 93 / 0 20 10 70
DEQ 73 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 78 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 20
ELD 74 97 75 95 / 0 10 0 40
TYR 75 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 30
GGG 74 96 75 96 / 0 0 0 40
LFK 73 96 75 92 / 0 10 20 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-137-138-
150>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...24
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