806
FXUS64 KSHV 161855
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
155 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
- OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION, WITH HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES.
- INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN GULF TROPICAL WAVE WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPPER AIR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANALYSIS
INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE SE CONUS, WHICH EXTENDS W INTO E TX.
MEANWHILE, SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A TROPICAL WAVE
MIGRATING W ALONG THE UPPER FL COAST, WITH THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW
REFLECTION NOTED JUST NW OF AAF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING RAPIDLY
FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S OBSERVED THIS MORNING, BUT TEMPS HAVE
SINCE SLOWED THEIR ASCENT AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
EXPANSIVE CU FIELD IN PLACE. MIXING HAS BEEN LIMITED TOO, WITH
MOST LOCALES REGISTERING HEAT INDICES OF 100-103 AS OF 18Z ACROSS
THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL WARMING THOUGH SHOULD
RESULT IN CRITERIA BEING MET LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL
MIXING WILL REMAIN WEAK, WITH COOLING SLOW TO OCCUR EVEN AS THE CU
FIELD DIMINISHES AND WHAT LITTLE WIND EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMPLETELY DECOUPLES. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO SUGGEST THAT
SOME ELEVATED CIGS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE MAY
SPREAD W INTO PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/CNTRL AND NE LA LATE TONIGHT,
BEFORE EVENTUALLY INCREASING ACROSS MORE OF E TX/MUCH OF N LA
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN IF THESE CIGS DO THIN SOME AS THE
APPROACH THE AREA, DID KEEP MIN TEMPS PERSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING, BUT COULD EVEN RUN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
OVER MUCH OF N LA IF THESE CIGS MATERIALIZE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY, BEFORE THE MOISTURE INFLUENCE WITH THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE BEGINS TO ADVECT NW INTO ECNTRL LA. THE VARIOUS 12Z
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICT THAT THE SFC REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO HUG THE MIDDLE GULF COAST THROUGH THE NEXT
24-36 HRS, WHICH WOULD INHIBIT MUCH STRENGTHENING BEFORE MOVING
FARTHER INLAND, ALTHOUGH A STARK INCREASE IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS SE LA THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD ADVANCE NW
INTO CNTRL AND ECNTRL LA BY AFTERNOON. DID MAINTAIN THE NBM LOW TO
MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING.
HOWEVER, AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS COMPARABLE TO WHAT SHOULD BE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY, AND
THUS HAVE BUMPED UP NBM DEWPOINTS A BIT WHILE ALSO LOWERING THE
NBM MAX TEMPS (WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT TOO HOT AS OF LATE).
EVENSO, HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM 105-108 DEGREES OVER
MUCH OF N LA/SW AR/EXTREME ERN TX THURSDAY, WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO EXTEND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN TIME THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
THE NBM IS LIKELY TOO HOT AGAIN FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA/E TX, AND ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF SW AR/EXTREME NE TX GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
ELEVATED CIGS AND THE WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS, AND HENCE, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO EXTEND THE CURRENT ADVISORY BEYOND THE CURRENT
00Z FRIDAY EXPIRATION. THE REMNANTS OF THIS WAVE/INCREASED CLOUD
COVER SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS ALONGSIDE THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT
BEGINS TO REASSERT ITSELF/EXPAND W BACK INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THANK YOU WFO'S LZK AND JAN FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK INTO MID
MORNING. SLIM RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR NOW, BUT WILL RAMP UP FOR
OUR SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GULF COASTAL LOW
MOVING INLAND. S/SW WINDS TODAY VARY FROM 5-15KT AND WILL BACK TO
S/SE THIS CYCLE. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 98 79 96 / 0 10 10 50
MLU 76 97 76 93 / 0 20 10 70
DEQ 73 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 78 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 20
ELD 74 97 75 95 / 0 10 0 40
TYR 75 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 30
GGG 74 96 75 96 / 0 0 0 40
LFK 73 96 75 92 / 0 10 20 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-137-138-
150>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26
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