898
FXUS64 KSHV 171741
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1241 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
- HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN TODAY FOR MOST OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION, WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES.
- INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN GULF TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA ZONES SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20, AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD MORE HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINING IN PLACE
OVER MOST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS ADVISORY
CONTINUES TO EXCLUDE MCCURTAIN COUNTY (OK) AND THE EXTREME
WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR EAST TEXAS COUNTIES, THOSE LOCATIONS WILL
STILL SEE HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES TODAY. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE
WILL START TO ERODE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM
NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST. AS THE
WAVE GETS CLOSER, CLOUD COVER AND BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TODAY WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TOLEDO BEND TO MONROE, LA.
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THERE STILL REMAIN SOME
QUESTIONS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. WILL IT DEVELOP MORE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS?...WHAT TRACK WILL IT TAKE?...HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL IT PRODUCE? AT THIS TIME, MODELS DON'T SEEM TOO BULLISH
WITH IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD BE BECAUSE THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF IT REMAINS IN THE GULF OR MOVE
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. REGARDLESS, THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE REGION,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND OUR LOUISIANA ZONES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OUR FORECAST AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS FOR UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION,
AS FLOOD PRODUCTS COULD BE NEEDED.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, AS
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY, HUMID, AND HOT CONDITIONS
RETURNING BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MORE HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE 105 DEGREES OVER THE MOST OF THE AREA. /20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
VICINITY TROPICAL AIRMASS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN EXPANDING CU
FIELD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON, AND EVEN A MARGINAL
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA DURING THE PEAK OF THE DAYTIME HEATING
PERIOD. AS A RESULT, ASIDE FROM THE SCT/BKN CU FIELD BELOW 5KFT,
ELECTED TO ADD VCTS TO MLU FOR A SHORT PERIOD BASED ON THE HI-RES
OUTPUT TARGETING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE AIRSPACE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED CU FIELD WILL DIMINISH
WITH A MIX OF SCT/BKN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
COASTAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WHEN IT COMES TO MODEL ADVERTISED BR AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
WHETHER THIS EVOLVES IS TO BE DETERMINED. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
ANOTHER RETURN OF MOSTLY BKN CU WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE CREEPS FURTHER INLAND. VCTS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z, BUT ELECTED TO INCLUDE SOME SHRA ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE AIRSPACE DURING THE LATE AM AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. VRB TERMINAL WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE
PERIOD, GENERALLY AROUND 3-5KT.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 93 77 91 / 10 50 30 40
MLU 77 88 75 91 / 20 70 20 60
DEQ 73 95 73 92 / 0 10 0 20
TXK 77 93 76 92 / 0 20 10 30
ELD 75 92 74 90 / 10 40 20 40
TYR 74 93 75 90 / 0 20 10 20
GGG 76 94 74 90 / 10 40 20 30
LFK 75 90 74 90 / 10 60 30 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
018>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
151.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...53
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