941
FXUS64 KSHV 180015
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
715 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
- OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS, WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105-109
DEGREES.
- AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
THE EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OUR TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUING TO SPIN AS IT DRIFTS W INTO UPPER PLAQUEMINES PARISH,
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO THE
N AND W OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER PORTIONS OF NE LA, CNTRL
AND SRN MS. CLOSER TO HOME, OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WRN BRANCH OF UPPER RIDGING FROM THE SE CONUS,
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTRIBUTING TO MIDDAY TEMPS ALREADY IN THE
MID 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AR AND MUCH OF N LA. IN FACT, IN
AREAS WHERE THE SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED, MIXING OF
DEWPOINTS HAS BEEN LIMITED, WITH HEAT INDICES ALREADY
REACHING/SURPASSING 105 DEGREES ACROSS THESE AREAS AS OF 17Z. THE
EXCEPTION WAS OVER MUCH OF E TX (EXCEPT THE BORDERING COUNTIES
NEAR TXK), WHERE TEMPS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AND BETTER
MIXING HAS BEEN OBSERVED. ELEVATED CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO IMPACT TEMPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND SABINE PARISH LA, WITH THIS TREND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THESE CIGS SPREAD FARTHER WNW OVER THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS, HAVE CANCELLED THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF LOWER E TX S OF I-20 AS WELL AS SABINE
PARISH, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED THE ADVISORY AS IS THROUGH 00Z THIS
EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF N LA/SW AR/EXTREME NE TX.
THE VARIOUS HI-RES AND 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ONGOING
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
CNTRL AND NE LA BEFORE DIMINISHING, WITH THE MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF DEEPER CONVECTION PERSISTING OVERNIGHT NEAR THE 925-850
LOW WHICH SHOULD DRIFT W INTO ACADIANA. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT OVER LOWER
TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY INTO CNTRL LA ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW, WITH
THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE LOW ELONGATING INTO A SW TO NE
ORIENTED TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FROM SE TX INTO WCNTRL AND NE LA.
THIS TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FOCUS SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ONCE DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES, WITH THE CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS NEAR AND S OF THIS TROUGH. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER MAX TEMPS, WITH
HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA, THUS NOT
NECESSITATING THE RE-ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FRIDAY.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING, ALTHOUGH SOME MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT NEAR THE
RESIDUAL TROUGH AXIS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS N LA/FAR SRN AR.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE LOST BY
SATURDAY, SHOULD AGAIN SEE AN UPTICK IN SCATTERED CONVECTION
BY AFTERNOON FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS N LA/SW AR BEFORE THIS TROUGH
WEAKENS FURTHER, AND THE SE CONUS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND
BACK W INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS SUNDAY. THUS, THE
RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH INCREASING HEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK LIKELY
NECESSITATING ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
15
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
FOR THE 18/00Z TAF PERIOD...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS HAS BROUGHT REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT
KMLU OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND LIKELY OVERNIGHT, AS LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG SETTLE OVER THE SITE. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
SHOULD STAY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND AND OVER THE AREA. AT THIS TIME,
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF CONVECTION AT KTYR/KGGG, AS SHORT-TERM MODELS
ARE KEEPING THOSE LOCATIONS DRY. BUT, THIS COULD CHANGE IN FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES, IF CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 94 77 92 / 10 50 20 30
MLU 76 90 75 91 / 20 70 20 50
DEQ 72 94 72 93 / 0 10 0 10
TXK 78 97 77 96 / 0 20 10 20
ELD 74 92 73 91 / 10 40 20 40
TYR 73 93 75 92 / 0 20 10 20
GGG 74 94 74 91 / 0 30 20 20
LFK 75 90 73 92 / 10 50 20 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...20
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