010
FXUS64 KSHV 181711
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1211 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
QUITE A FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS, MAINLY TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER
MUCH OF DEEP E TX/WCNTRL LA GIVEN THE MASS OF CONVECTION NEAR AND
TO THE W OF THE MCV DEPICTED IN THE RADAR IMAGERY NEAR AQV. HAVE
ALSO ADDED POPS THIS MORNING FARTHER NNW OF THE CONVECTION AREA
OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA WHERE CONVECTION HAD BEGUN TO SPREAD
INTO THESE AREAS, OR HAD JUST RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HAVE ALSO
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT OVER DEEP E TX AND WCNTRL LA WHERE THE
PERSISTENT MODERATE RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN A COLDER POOL OF AIR AT
THE SFC OVER THIS AREA, WHICH WILL BE HARDER TO WARM ONCE THE
CONVECTION EVENTUALLY DIMINISHES LATER TODAY. ALSO HAD TO BEEF UP
THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE
BECOME PREVALENT N OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN E
TX, AS WELL AS MUCH OF SW AR. GIVEN THESE ELEVATED CIGS, WHICH
LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, WE MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER SW AR/SE OK, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TEMP
TRENDS AND DRY AIR THAT MIXED DOWN OVER THE NW ZONES THIS
MORNING. WILL RE- ASSESS THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE TRENDS
CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
15
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
- HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN TODAY FOR MOST OF OUR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
COUNTIES, ALONG WITH ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS, AS
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES.
- THE NORTHERN GULF EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA, BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION.
- CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
LOUISIANA ZONES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20, AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF DEEP EAST TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF
MOVED INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA THIS PAST AFTERNOON,
BRINGING A COUPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY. AS I CURRENTLY WRITE THIS
DISCUSSION, KSHV RADAR IS NOW COMPLETELY FREE OF ANY RAIN. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND WET SOILS, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL. BUT, THAT FOG SHOULD DIMINISH BY
EARLY TO MID MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, THE REMNANTS OF THAT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT. SHORT-TERM PROGS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL
START TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
REGION AS ME MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR TODAY.
NORTH OF I-30, EXPECT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
ALTHOUGH, THE AREA COULD SEE MORE AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER TODAY
FROM CONVECTION ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE REGION, MODELS STILL
SUGGEST HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 105 DEGREES TODAY. SO,
DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF OUR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS COUNTIES, ALONG WITH ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
FROM 10A TO 7P TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY FOR ROUGHLY THE SAME AREAS, AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE WAVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA ZONES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20, SO
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY ADVISORIES,
WATCHES, OR WARNINGS.
THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING BACK
ACROSS THE REGION, ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
MORE HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, AS HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 DEGREES OVER THE MOST OF THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME HINT, THAT THE RIDGE COULD ERODE ENOUGH ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES BY LATE NEXT WEEK, FOR SOME AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES, BRINGING
SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT, SO KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED. /20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND LEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING, THOUGH
THIS WILL NOT BE THE END OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE AIRSPACE FOR THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA IS FORECAST TO POP UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LA/AR AIRSPACE, WITH GUIDANCE
DIALING IN ON THE TERMINALS ALONG AND EAST OF I-49. TO COMBAT
THIS, ELECTED TO INCLUDE AN EARLY SET OF TEMPO'S TO THE PACKAGE
FROM SHV EAST TO MLU AND UP TO ELD. BUBBLING BKN CU BELOW 5KFT HAS
BEEN THE SIGNAL FOR THIS REGION BEING THE AREA TO WATCH FOR
ADDITIONAL TSRA TERMINAL IMPACTS AHEAD OF 00Z. OVERNIGHT, MID AND
HIGH CLOUD WILL COVER THE AIRSPACE AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF BKN CU
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO START, WITH ADDITIONAL TSRA NOT EXPECTED TILL JUST
AFTER 18Z. TERMINAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD MOSTLY VRB AROUND
5KT, OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA, FOR ANY RAINFALL REPORTS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING THAT MAY DEVELOP. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 93 78 98 / 40 20 0 0
MLU 76 92 76 97 / 40 40 10 10
DEQ 71 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 76 98 77 99 / 20 10 0 0
ELD 74 91 74 96 / 40 20 0 0
TYR 75 94 76 95 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 75 94 75 96 / 20 10 0 0
LFK 74 93 74 95 / 20 40 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>072.
LA...NONE.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...53
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