649
FXUS64 KSHV 181756
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1256 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
- THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT TIMELY RAINS
FOR MUCH OF NORTH LOUISIANA, PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS,
AND LOWER EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
- A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
DEEP E TX, WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS THUS FAR TODAY WITH
MULTIPLE GAUGES RECORDING 2-4+ INCHES, PARTICULARLY OVER SABINE
PARISH W INTO SABINE, SRN SHELBY, AND SAN AUGUSTINE COUNTIES. THIS
CONVECTION REMAINS TIED TO AN MCV WHICH IS DEFINED IN THE MOSAIC
RADAR IMAGERY S OF F17, WITH THE OVERALL INTENSITIES GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, THE EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TOWERING CU QUICKLY BUBBLING UP TO THE E ACROSS MUCH OF N LA/SRN
AR, IN VC OF THE ATTENDANT INVERTED H850 TROUGH AXIS, WHERE
SBCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO 3000-4000 J/KG. IN FACT, IMAGERY ALSO
DEPICTS A SMALL AREA OF VORTICITY NOTED OVER NW CLAIBORNE PARISH,
WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR AND TO THE E
OF THE CENTER.
WHILE THE RAINS OVER DEEP E TX LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING, THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF N LA/SRN AR, WITH THE VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GOOD COVERAGE OVER THESE AREAS ALONG THE
H850-500 TROUGH. VERY WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
PRIMARILY OUTFLOW DRIVEN, ALTHOUGH PW'S OF 2.0-2.3 INCHES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CONVECTION TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS IN
THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE NBM REMAINS TOO LOW WITH POPS
THIS EVENING, WITH THE VARIOUS HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
EVENING IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS BEFORE DIMINISHING, AND THUS
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LOW TO MID CHANCE THIS EVENING FOR SRN AR/N
LA. WHILE THE NBM REMAINS DRY AFTER 03Z, DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SRN AR/N LA IN VC OF THE WEAK
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS ALOFT AS SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP.
CONVECTION SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE NEAR THIS
RESIDUAL SHEAR AXIS, AS WELL AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF VORTICITY
NOTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL MS NEAR JAN, WHICH MAY DRIFT
N OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS BUT STILL LINGER OVER THE AREA. DID NOT
DEVIATE MUCH OF THE NBM POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY NE INTO
CNTRL/NE LA. HOWEVER, THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS
SHEAR AXIS ALOFT TO WEAKEN FURTHER/BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC/SE
CONUS BEGINS TO EXPAND W INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SHOULD ALSO SEE A
GRADUAL RETURN TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT THOUGH SATURDAY DESPITE THE
CONVECTION AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT, BUT ATTM,
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, BY
SUNDAY, RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF/MS
AND AL, RESULTING IN LIKELY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREAWIDE.
RIDGING SHOULD EXPAND N AND AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY
FOR MUCH OF THIS COMING WORK WEEK, MAINTAINING VERY HOT, HUMID,
AND DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND LEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING, THOUGH
THIS WILL NOT BE THE END OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE AIRSPACE FOR THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA IS FORECAST TO POP UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LA/AR AIRSPACE, WITH GUIDANCE
DIALING IN ON THE TERMINALS ALONG AND EAST OF I-49. TO COMBAT
THIS, ELECTED TO INCLUDE AN EARLY SET OF TEMPO'S TO THE PACKAGE
FROM SHV EAST TO MLU AND UP TO ELD. BUBBLING BKN CU BELOW 5KFT HAS
BEEN THE SIGNAL FOR THIS REGION BEING THE AREA TO WATCH FOR
ADDITIONAL TSRA TERMINAL IMPACTS AHEAD OF 00Z. OVERNIGHT, MID AND
HIGH CLOUD WILL COVER THE AIRSPACE AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF BKN CU
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO START, WITH ADDITIONAL TSRA NOT EXPECTED TILL JUST
AFTER 18Z. TERMINAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD MOSTLY VRB AROUND
5KT, OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH LOUISIANA, EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS, AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
/15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 93 78 98 / 40 20 0 0
MLU 76 92 76 97 / 40 40 10 10
DEQ 71 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 76 98 77 99 / 20 10 0 0
ELD 74 91 74 96 / 40 20 0 0
TYR 75 94 76 95 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 75 94 75 96 / 20 10 0 0
LFK 74 93 74 95 / 20 40 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>072.
LA...NONE.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...53
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