494  
FXUS64 KSHV 101616  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1116 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING  
TODAY AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
 
- WHILE IT WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK, HEAT  
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS  
 
- UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT  
WEEK  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
I WANTED TO GET THE DISCUSSION AND FORECAST OUT A LITTLE EARLIER  
THAN NORMAL TODAY. THE MAIN REASON IS BECAUSE RADAR IMAGERY IS  
ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA WITH SOME  
ADDITIONAL RETURNS STARTING TO POP UP ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS. OUR  
POPS DID NOT REALLY ACCOUNT MUCH FOR THIS ACTIVITY SO I WANTED TO  
GET AN UPDATE OUT. I ALSO INCREASED POPS AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EAST  
TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON WHAT THE  
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. WE SEEMED TO OVER  
PERFORM YESTERDAY AND I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WOULDN'T OVER PERFORM  
TODAY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SHOWERS ALREADY SHOWING UP. MORE  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN  
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL. ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THIS IS  
THAT OUR OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7-DAYS CONTINUE  
TO COME UP SOME.  
 
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, BOTTOM LINE IS THIS...IT WILL REMAIN HOT AS  
THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST ALWAYS IS. BUT I THINK WE WILL REMAIN BELOW  
THOSE CRITICAL HEAT INDEX THRESHOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK  
THANKS TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. AS SUCH, I  
DON'T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH NEED IN AN HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL STILL FLIRT WITH 105 DEGREE  
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT TIMES. THIS COULD CHANGE TOWARDS THE END OF  
THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE AND RAIN CHANCES START  
TO DECREASE. /33/  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
SEEING SOME EARLY MORNING CUMULUS ON IR THIS MORNING WITH HEIGHTS  
RANGING FROM NEAR 35HDFT TO NEAR 5KFT. WE WILL SEE MORE OF THIS AS  
THE MORNING CONTINUES AND ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF CEILINGS NEAR 4-6KFT  
TODAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
NE TX, SW AR AND N LA. STORM CHANCES DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN  
THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE HOWEVER. ANY REMNANT CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY  
DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR MOSTLY E TO SE WINDS  
TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  
 
13  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
SHV 93 76 94 76 / 30 10 30 10  
MLU 92 74 92 74 / 30 10 30 20  
DEQ 93 71 92 71 / 30 10 10 0  
TXK 95 75 94 75 / 30 10 20 0  
ELD 92 72 91 72 / 20 10 30 10  
TYR 94 74 92 74 / 30 10 20 10  
GGG 94 74 93 73 / 30 20 30 10  
LFK 92 73 92 73 / 20 10 40 10  
 
 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...33  
AVIATION...13  
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