178
FXUS64 KSHV 110136
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
836 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING
TODAY AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- WHILE IT WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK, HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
- UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
I WANTED TO GET THE DISCUSSION AND FORECAST OUT A LITTLE EARLIER
THAN NORMAL TODAY. THE MAIN REASON IS BECAUSE RADAR IMAGERY IS
ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL RETURNS STARTING TO POP UP ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS. OUR
POPS DID NOT REALLY ACCOUNT MUCH FOR THIS ACTIVITY SO I WANTED TO
GET AN UPDATE OUT. I ALSO INCREASED POPS AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. WE SEEMED TO OVER
PERFORM YESTERDAY AND I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WOULDN'T OVER PERFORM
TODAY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SHOWERS ALREADY SHOWING UP. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL. ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THIS IS
THAT OUR OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7-DAYS CONTINUE
TO COME UP SOME.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, BOTTOM LINE IS THIS...IT WILL REMAIN HOT AS
THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST ALWAYS IS. BUT I THINK WE WILL REMAIN BELOW
THOSE CRITICAL HEAT INDEX THRESHOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
THANKS TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. AS SUCH, I
DON'T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH NEED IN AN HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL STILL FLIRT WITH 105 DEGREE
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT TIMES. THIS COULD CHANGE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE AND RAIN CHANCES START
TO DECREASE. /33/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, QUIET EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A SIMILAR
PUSH IN THE EASTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL TERMINALS ENDED UP
WITH SOME WIND AND/OR WEATHER. LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW WITH
VTCS FOR THE AFTERNOON, STORM MOTION STILL INFLUENCED BY THE
EASTERLIES, BUT A TRANSISTION TO WESTERLIES WILL SETTLE CLOSER IN
FOR TUESDAY. BOTH DAYS SEEING GOOD COVERAGE WITH OUTFLOW DRIVEN
ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNSET. E/SE WINDS 5-10KT WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
NEAR DOWNPOURS. QUIETER, BUT NOT RAINFREE MID TO LATE WEEK. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 94 76 93 / 10 30 10 40
MLU 74 92 74 90 / 10 30 20 60
DEQ 71 92 71 92 / 10 10 0 30
TXK 75 94 75 94 / 10 20 0 30
ELD 72 91 72 91 / 10 30 10 40
TYR 74 92 74 91 / 10 20 10 30
GGG 74 93 73 92 / 10 30 10 40
LFK 73 92 73 92 / 10 40 10 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24
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