480
FXUS64 KSHV 111027
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
527 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING
TODAY AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- WHILE IT WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK, HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
- UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF, ALONG WITH A SECOND
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF, WILL SUPPORT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER, LIMITING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEK, AS WELL AS
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS AS THE CENTRAL GULF
DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND INTO SOUTH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.
DESPITE THE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX DUE TO THE WEST GULF TROUGH EXPANDING AND LINGERING ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL WARMING ACROSS LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
90S.
OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX MAINTAINING
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. /05/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ELD AND MLU
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, PREVAILED VCSH AT THE ELD
AND MLU TERMINALS, TRANSITIONING THESE TERMINALS TO VCTS BY 18Z
ALONG WITH OUR REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH 01Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTING
THUNDERSTORM TODAY. LOOK FOR MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 77 95 74 / 20 10 40 10
MLU 95 75 95 74 / 20 20 60 20
DEQ 94 71 95 72 / 20 10 30 10
TXK 97 75 97 75 / 20 10 30 10
ELD 94 73 94 72 / 20 10 40 10
TYR 95 74 94 75 / 20 10 30 10
GGG 95 74 93 74 / 20 10 40 10
LFK 95 74 93 74 / 30 10 40 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13
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