601  
FXUS64 KSHV 120434  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1134 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE  
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
- WHILE IT WILL REMAIN HOT THIS WEEK, RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL  
KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF  
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 
- UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING COULD BRING A RETURN OF HOT TEMPERATURES IN  
THE UPPER 90S LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.  
 
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
AN INVERTED UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST AND  
A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL MAINTAIN  
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON TUESDAY. A FEW  
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION RE-IGNITING ACROSS THE  
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.  
 
WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION, A MOIST  
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON TUESDAY.  
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING DEWPOINT VALUES WHICH HAVE BEEN  
TRENDING HIGHER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED, WHICH, IF BELIEVED,  
WOULD SUGGEST HEAT HEADLINES WOULD BE NEEDED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER,  
WITHOUT AMPLE REASON TO ASSUME THAT DEWPOINT VALUES ON TUESDAY  
WILL DIFFER FROM TODAY, WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED DEWPOINT VALUES TO  
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. THIS ADJUSTMENT  
COMBINED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S, SHOULD MITIGATE THE NEED FOR  
HEAT HEADLINES.  
 
THE ARKLATEX WILL REMAIN IN A NEARLY STAGNANT PATTERN THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS  
AND OKLAHOMA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE  
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL EASE INTO THE ARKLATEX ALLOWING FOR  
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES  
ONCE AGAIN. /05/  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, QUIET AND FAIR SKIES FOR OUR TX SITES,  
BUT LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER LA. WE HAVE TOTALLY  
SHIFTED FROM NE FLOW ALOFT TO S/SW. STILL E/SE ON THE SFC TONIGHT  
0-4KT, BUT LOW LEVEL 2-8KFT IS SE AND WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY 5-15KT.  
MORE CONVECTION IS LIKELY IS THIS ENVIRONMENT, IN FACT AND RATHER  
ODDLY, WE HAVE ANOTHER SEA BREEZE PUSH OFF I-10 TOWARDS AEX ATTM.  
SO WE'LL KEEP AN EYE OVERNIGHT. THEN EXPECTING THIS DEEP S/SW  
FLOW ALOFT TO BRING IN MORE OFF THE GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK./24/  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
SHV 77 97 78 95 / 20 30 10 50  
MLU 75 95 75 94 / 20 50 20 50  
DEQ 71 96 72 93 / 10 30 20 40  
TXK 74 98 75 96 / 10 30 20 40  
ELD 73 95 73 94 / 20 30 10 40  
TYR 75 96 75 95 / 10 20 20 40  
GGG 74 96 74 94 / 10 30 10 40  
LFK 74 94 75 95 / 10 40 10 50  
 
 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...05  
AVIATION...24  
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