242
FXUS64 KSHV 120547
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- WHILE IT WILL REMAIN HOT THIS WEEK, RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING COULD BRING A RETURN OF HOT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
AN INVERTED UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL MAINTAIN
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON TUESDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION RE-IGNITING ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.
WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION, A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING DEWPOINT VALUES WHICH HAVE BEEN
TRENDING HIGHER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED, WHICH, IF BELIEVED,
WOULD SUGGEST HEAT HEADLINES WOULD BE NEEDED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER,
WITHOUT AMPLE REASON TO ASSUME THAT DEWPOINT VALUES ON TUESDAY
WILL DIFFER FROM TODAY, WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED DEWPOINT VALUES TO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. THIS ADJUSTMENT
COMBINED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S, SHOULD MITIGATE THE NEED FOR
HEAT HEADLINES.
THE ARKLATEX WILL REMAIN IN A NEARLY STAGNANT PATTERN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL EASE INTO THE ARKLATEX ALLOWING FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
ONCE AGAIN. /05/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR FAR NORTHWEST AIRSPACE
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WE ARE SEEING A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE BUT WE SHOULD SEE AN
UPTICK IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
AIRSPACE. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND CONTINUED THAT WORDING THROUGH 02Z THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION LIKELY WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 02Z TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR
IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. LOOK FOR VARIABLE WINDS
AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS EXCEPT
MUCH STRONGER AND GUSTS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 97 78 95 77 / 30 10 50 20
MLU 95 75 94 75 / 50 20 50 20
DEQ 96 72 93 72 / 30 20 40 20
TXK 98 75 96 75 / 30 20 40 30
ELD 95 73 94 72 / 30 10 40 30
TYR 96 75 95 75 / 20 20 40 20
GGG 96 74 94 75 / 30 10 40 20
LFK 94 75 95 75 / 40 10 50 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13
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