276
FXUS64 KSHV 121740
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- WHILE IT WILL REMAIN HOT THIS WEEK, RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING COULD BRING A RETURN OF HOT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
AN INVERTED UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL MAINTAIN
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON TUESDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION RE-IGNITING ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.
WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION, A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING DEWPOINT VALUES WHICH HAVE BEEN
TRENDING HIGHER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED, WHICH, IF BELIEVED,
WOULD SUGGEST HEAT HEADLINES WOULD BE NEEDED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER,
WITHOUT AMPLE REASON TO ASSUME THAT DEWPOINT VALUES ON TUESDAY
WILL DIFFER FROM TODAY, WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED DEWPOINT VALUES TO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. THIS ADJUSTMENT
COMBINED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S, SHOULD MITIGATE THE NEED FOR
HEAT HEADLINES.
THE ARKLATEX WILL REMAIN IN A NEARLY STAGNANT PATTERN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL EASE INTO THE ARKLATEX ALLOWING FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
ONCE AGAIN. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
AIRMASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OFF ALL TAF TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR. ALL TERMINALS HAVE
VCTS STARTING EITHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF OR BY 19Z. WE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE A TEMPO, OR OTHER ON-STATION TS MENTION, AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO OUR LACK OF CONFIDENCE ABOUT DIRECT
TERMINAL IMPACTS GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY TODAY. WE DID INCLUDE A TEMPO AT LUFKIN AND MONROE WHERE
DEEP CONVECTION HAD ALREADY INITIATED NEARBY THOSE TERMINALS.
CONVECTION WILL WANE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH
ALL VCTS BEING REMOVED BETWEEN 23-02Z. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS
EVENING SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT.
SIMILAR TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW, BUT WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE MOST OF THE CONVENTION WILL PICK UP
AFTER 18Z, THOSE DETAILS WEREN'T INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAFS BUT
WILL LIKELY BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.
BONNETTE
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 77 95 77 / 30 10 40 20
MLU 95 75 95 74 / 50 10 50 30
DEQ 94 72 94 71 / 20 20 30 10
TXK 96 75 96 75 / 20 10 30 20
ELD 94 72 95 72 / 30 10 40 20
TYR 95 74 95 75 / 20 10 40 20
GGG 95 74 95 74 / 20 10 40 20
LFK 95 74 95 75 / 30 10 50 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...99/FWD
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