970  
FXUS64 KSHV 131128  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
628 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
- SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND OVER THE REGION  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
- DESPITE THE CONVECTION, STRONG HEATING AND LIMITED MIXING OF  
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105-109  
DEGREES OVER MUCH OF NORTH LOUISIANA, EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS  
AND EAST TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF  
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT OCCURS. THUS, A  
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.  
 
- UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND EAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES  
RETURNING TO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES, WITH HEAT INDICES  
AGAIN NEARING/EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES AREAWIDE DESPITE  
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
ALL IS QUIET FOR NOW, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST EARLY MORNING SATELLITE  
IMAGERY INDICATES SOME ELEVATED CU DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF  
CNTRL AND ECNTRL TX BENEATH THE DECAYING CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE  
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION, JUST E OF A NE-SW  
ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS ANALYZED FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO THE BIG  
COUNTRY OF WCNTRL TX. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF  
NIGHTS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP  
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK NEAR AND E OF THIS WEAK SHEAR AXIS, OVER  
PORTIONS OF NE TX WHICH MAY EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF SE OK/EXTREME  
SW AR, AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME NW LA AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHEAR  
AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW EWD DRIFT INTO THE OZARKS/SE OK INTO  
NCNTRL TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT APPROACHES A VERY MOIST AIR  
MASS INDICATIVE OF PW'S NEARING 2 INCHES IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF  
OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, STRONG HEATING AND FORCING AHEAD OF THIS  
WEAKNESS ALOFT SHOULD AGAIN INDUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION  
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FARTHER SE FROM DEEP E  
TX INTO N LA/SRN AR, WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE  
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. HOWEVER, AS WAS THE CASE TUESDAY, NBM TEMPS  
AGAIN LOOK UNDERDONE, AND THUS HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A TAD WITH  
THE LIMITED MIXING OF DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES  
REACHING/EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES OVER A LARGE PART OF EXTREME ERN  
TX/SRN AR AND ALL OF N LA, AS WAS THE CASE FOR AT LEAST 2-3+ HOURS  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE  
AREAS FROM 15Z TO 00Z, ALTHOUGH SOME RELIEF TO THESE MORE EXTREME  
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE  
DEVELOPING CONVECTION.  
 
WHILE THE CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE  
EVENING, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY  
AGAIN REDEVELOP LATE/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN VC OF THIS SHEAR  
AXIS AS IT DRIFTS INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR BY DAYBREAK. AGAIN,  
SOME WEAKENING MAY AGAIN OCCUR BY MID TO LATE MORNING, ALTHOUGH  
THE WEAKNESS ALOFT SHOULD AGAIN BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR MORE  
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF  
THE AREA AS TEMPS AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA MAY BE MET AGAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA GIVEN THE  
PERSISTENT TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE, BEFORE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT  
FROM THE REDEVELOPING CONVECTION OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO DETERMINE WHETHER ADDITIONAL HEAT  
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED INTO THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE DOES  
INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS  
TO EXPAND E INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS. MEANWHILE, THE  
LINGERING SHEAR AXIS IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN FURTHER FRIDAY INTO  
THIS WEEKEND AS IT BECOMES WEDGED BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND  
ADDITIONAL RIDGING THAT WILL EXPAND W ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF.  
HOWEVER, AMPLE MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING SHOULD AGAIN  
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, WHICH AGAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME RESPITE TO THE HEAT FOR  
SOME.  
 
15  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILING ATTM NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE  
I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND SE OK. THUS, PREVAILED VCTS AT THE  
TYR/GGG AND TXK TERMINALS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT BOTH THE TYR AND GGG  
TERMINALS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING IN COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY BETWEEN 8 AND 10AM AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL  
MORNINGS, THEN WE AWAIT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION NEAR THE  
NOON HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS  
EVENING. BEGAN VCTS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 18Z TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF  
CONVECTION TODAY.  
 
13  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. /15/  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
SHV 98 77 97 78 / 40 30 50 20  
MLU 97 76 95 75 / 40 30 50 20  
DEQ 93 71 94 73 / 30 20 30 10  
TXK 98 76 98 77 / 30 20 40 10  
ELD 96 73 94 73 / 40 30 50 20  
TYR 94 75 95 76 / 40 20 40 10  
GGG 95 73 95 75 / 40 30 50 10  
LFK 96 75 96 74 / 50 30 50 20  
 
 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING  
FOR ARZ059-070>073.  
 
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING  
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.  
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING  
FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-151>153-165>167.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...15  
AVIATION...13  
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