595  
FXUS64 KSHV 131748  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1248 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL  
PRODUCTION FROM ONGOING CONVECTION SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD  
ACROSS I-20. FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS  
EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. /16/  
 

 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
- SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND OVER THE REGION  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
- DESPITE THE CONVECTION, STRONG HEATING AND LIMITED MIXING OF  
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105-109  
DEGREES OVER MUCH OF NORTH LOUISIANA, EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS  
AND EAST TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF  
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT OCCURS. THUS, A  
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.  
 
- UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND EAST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES  
RETURNING TO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES, WITH HEAT INDICES  
AGAIN NEARING/EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES AREAWIDE DESPITE  
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
ALL IS QUIET FOR NOW, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST EARLY MORNING SATELLITE  
IMAGERY INDICATES SOME ELEVATED CU DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF  
CNTRL AND ECNTRL TX BENEATH THE DECAYING CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE  
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION, JUST E OF A NE-SW  
ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS ANALYZED FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO THE BIG  
COUNTRY OF WCNTRL TX. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF  
NIGHTS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP  
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK NEAR AND E OF THIS WEAK SHEAR AXIS, OVER  
PORTIONS OF NE TX WHICH MAY EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF SE OK/EXTREME  
SW AR, AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME NW LA AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHEAR  
AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW EWD DRIFT INTO THE OZARKS/SE OK INTO  
NCNTRL TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT APPROACHES A VERY MOIST AIR  
MASS INDICATIVE OF PW'S NEARING 2 INCHES IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF  
OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, STRONG HEATING AND FORCING AHEAD OF THIS  
WEAKNESS ALOFT SHOULD AGAIN INDUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION  
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FARTHER SE FROM DEEP E  
TX INTO N LA/SRN AR, WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE  
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. HOWEVER, AS WAS THE CASE TUESDAY, NBM TEMPS  
AGAIN LOOK UNDERDONE, AND THUS HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A TAD WITH  
THE LIMITED MIXING OF DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES  
REACHING/EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES OVER A LARGE PART OF EXTREME ERN  
TX/SRN AR AND ALL OF N LA, AS WAS THE CASE FOR AT LEAST 2-3+ HOURS  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE  
AREAS FROM 15Z TO 00Z, ALTHOUGH SOME RELIEF TO THESE MORE EXTREME  
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE  
DEVELOPING CONVECTION.  
 
WHILE THE CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE  
EVENING, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY  
AGAIN REDEVELOP LATE/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN VC OF THIS SHEAR  
AXIS AS IT DRIFTS INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR BY DAYBREAK. AGAIN,  
SOME WEAKENING MAY AGAIN OCCUR BY MID TO LATE MORNING, ALTHOUGH  
THE WEAKNESS ALOFT SHOULD AGAIN BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR MORE  
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF  
THE AREA AS TEMPS AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA MAY BE MET AGAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA GIVEN THE  
PERSISTENT TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE, BEFORE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT  
FROM THE REDEVELOPING CONVECTION OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO DETERMINE WHETHER ADDITIONAL HEAT  
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED INTO THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE DOES  
INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS  
TO EXPAND E INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS. MEANWHILE, THE  
LINGERING SHEAR AXIS IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN FURTHER FRIDAY INTO  
THIS WEEKEND AS IT BECOMES WEDGED BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND  
ADDITIONAL RIDGING THAT WILL EXPAND W ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF.  
HOWEVER, AMPLE MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING SHOULD AGAIN  
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, WHICH AGAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME RESPITE TO THE HEAT FOR  
SOME.  
 
15  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
FOR THE 13/18Z TAFS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION HAVE  
BEEN TRENDING DOWN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. VCTS WILL STILL  
PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL SITES, AS CONVECTION MAY POP UP ALONG OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS  
EVENING AND LEAVE LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD  
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THIS PACKAGE ONLY  
INCLUDES IT AT SITES WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. /57/  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THAT SAID, FLASH  
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHER THAN USUAL ACROSS EAST TEXAS,  
AND ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING FROM SPOTTERS ARE APPRECIATED. /16/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 77 96 77 95 / 30 50 20 40  
MLU 75 96 75 95 / 30 70 20 60  
DEQ 71 94 72 94 / 10 20 10 30  
TXK 75 98 75 96 / 20 30 10 30  
ELD 72 94 72 94 / 20 40 10 50  
TYR 74 95 76 95 / 20 30 10 20  
GGG 74 95 75 95 / 30 40 10 30  
LFK 74 96 74 96 / 30 60 10 40  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ050-051-  
059>061-070>073.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ059-070>073.  
 
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-  
010>014-017>022.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-  
017>022.  
 
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ077.  
 
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ096-097-  
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-  
151>153-165>167.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...16  
AVIATION...57  
 
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