445
FXUS64 KSHV 291844
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
144 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
- FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1PM THIS AFTERNOON.
- THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD I-10 NOW WITH NE WINDS, BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NW WILL LINGER FOR DAYS YET.
THIS WILL BE KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY GRAY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- LABOR DAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING AND
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SOUTH OF I-20. THE BEST NEWS
IS THAT METEOROLOGICAL FALL IS A FEW DAYS EARLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
THE NE WINDS HAVE RETURNED WITH OUR COOL FRONT/MCS OUTFLOW AND
ARE NOW BLOWING WELL SOUTH OF I-20 ALONG WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY MOVING ACROSS I-30 INTO SW AR AND N LA.
MEANWHILE, THE BIG LATE DAY INITIAL PUSH HAS MOVED THROUGH OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF CO./PA. JUST OVER LAST FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED BY THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT, BUT
A FEW AREAS SAW SOME STORM TRAINING, BUT MUCH MORE OF THAT WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE NW FLOW CONTINUES TO SEND WEAK DISTURBANCES
DOWN I-49 TONIGHT AND TO SOME EXTENT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FLOOD
WATCH INDICATES WHERE MOST OF THESE HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND
POTENTIAL TRAINING WILL OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT LUNCH TIME. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PROPER, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
OVERALL AS NE WINDS VEER TO E WITH A SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE WPC MAINTAINS MARGINAL RISK EROS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
GROUND CONTINUES TO WET. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE ENDING BY
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW OVER THE COOLER AIR
MASS WILL KEEP SKIES GRAY AND RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NEEDED RAINFALL. THE SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK FOR
MOSTLY TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF TX AND LA FOR THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK.
LABOR DAY IS LOOKING QUITE GRAND AS THE SUNSHINE RETURNS TO END
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THE BEST PART OF THIS EARLY FALLISH STORY
IS THE COOLER TEMPS IN THE LACK OF LATE SUMMER SUNSHINE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE NEW WEEK WILL SEE SOME RAIN IN THE SEPTEMBER BUCKET AS
A SECONDARY AIR MASS PUSHES OUT OF THE CANADA AND DOWN THE MS
RIVER VALLEY KEEPING THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON A ROLL. /24/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO
BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHAT IS LEFT
BEHIND IS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS WITH THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION BEING WILL THOSE LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW, DID SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT
CEILING WISE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN AIRSPACE
WHILE KEEPING OUR NE TX TERMINALS WITH IFR AND/OR LIFR CEILINGS
MOST OF THE NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH
ON THIS OCCURRING. CAMS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR AIRSPACE
SO DID MAKE MENTION OF THIS WITH VCSH WORDING.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT THROUGH NOON ON FRIDAY
FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY AND FOR ANY
FLOODING. REGARDLESS OF ACTIVATION, ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING
ESPECIALLY WILL BE APPRECIATED FOR THE FLOOD WATCH VERIFICATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 87 73 88 / 20 20 10 20
MLU 68 88 69 90 / 10 10 0 10
DEQ 64 85 67 85 / 10 10 10 20
TXK 67 88 70 87 / 10 10 10 20
ELD 63 88 65 88 / 10 10 0 10
TYR 71 84 72 83 / 30 30 30 50
GGG 70 86 71 85 / 20 20 20 40
LFK 72 88 71 85 / 50 50 20 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13
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