160
FXUS64 KSHV 301142
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
- MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE
UPPER LEVEL COOL FRONT OVER EAST TEXAS AND TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
- RAINFALL RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR LABOR DAY AS THE WINDS
VEER TO EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER SECONDARY COOL FRONT APPROACHING.
- THE WORK WEEK STARTS A LITTLE WET, MAINLY EAST OF I-49 AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO NW WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
SUPER WET SOILS ARE ALLOWING PATCHY DENSE FOG TO CROP UP, MAINLY
EAST OF I-49 SO FAR WITH MANY CALM STATIONS. WEST OF I-49, PARTS
OF EAST TX ARE NOW SEEING RAIN SHOWERS REDEVELOPING, WHICH WILL
BOTH CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THE FOG WILL GO
AWAY AFTER SUNRISE, THE RAIN SHOWERS LINGER EARLY TO MIDDAY AT
LEAST, BUT PERHAPS UNTIL SUNSET ON SATURDAY.
OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE AND PERHAPS WARMER EAST OF
I-49 THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD STATIONARY OVER TX
FOR A WHILE AS OUR WINDS VEER TO EAST FOR SUNDAY. AGAIN LOOKING
FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR WEST TO CONTINUE, BUT BY LABOR
DAY, THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL SPREAD BACK EASTWARD ACROSS
I-49 FOR AREAWIDE COVERAGE TO END THE HOLIDAY.
THE SPC IS CARRYING A GENERAL RISK FOR ANY STORMS OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SO FOR THOSE ENJOYING THE GREAT OUTDOORS, "IF
THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS". THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
BREAKING ANY DAILY RECORDS AND THE WPC IS LOOKING AT THE NEXT FEW
DAYS TOTALING AN INCH OR TWO FOR OUR TX COUNTIES, BUT TENTHS AND
QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS EAST OF I-49 FOR A DECENT GRADIENT ORIENTED
UNDER THAT PESKY NW FLOW.
OUR NEXT COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT TO WINDS TO NE ON MONDAY AND THEN
TO NW BY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL START TO FINALLY DRY US OUT. TO
FLIP THE SCRIPT, TUESDAY WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND EAST OF I-49 AS THE NW WIND VEERS TO N AND PUSHES OUT THE
RAIN ALL TOGETHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SO AS THE SUNSHINE RETURNS
AREAWIDE WITH THE SHORT WORK/SCHOOL WEEK, WE WILL MID TO UPPER 80S
NORTH TO RIGHT AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR A FEW DAYS. THE MORNING WILL
BE TRENDING COOLER AS THE CLOUDS GO, FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL
ALLOW OUR TEMPS TO FALL THROUGH THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE BULK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
MIDSOUTH TO END THE WEEK AND KICKOFF NEXT WEEKEND. /24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
ETX TERMINALS CONTINUE TO SEE THE MOST IMPACTS AT THE START OF THE
12Z TAF PERIOD AS AN AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO EXIST FROM
TYR SOUTH TO LFK. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR THIS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THE EVENING. AS A
RESULT, ETX TERMINALS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
FOR THE TIME BEING, WHILE THE REST OF THE AIRSPACE HOLDS AT VFR,
THOUGH BKN/OVC CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, THE AIRSPACE SHOULD
TREND QUIET TO START, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS
ALONG THE SAME AXIS EARLY TOMORROW AM. TERMINAL WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN EASTERLY AROUND 5KT.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 89 72 88 72 / 20 10 30 20
MLU 90 68 91 68 / 10 0 10 10
DEQ 86 68 84 66 / 10 20 20 20
TXK 88 70 88 69 / 10 10 20 20
ELD 89 66 88 65 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 84 73 82 70 / 50 40 60 30
GGG 85 71 84 69 / 40 30 50 20
LFK 86 72 83 70 / 60 30 60 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53
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