658
FXUS64 KSHV 301856
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
156 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IMPACTING AT LEAST OUR WESTERN HALF THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WHILE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY,
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.
- A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS VALLEY REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
NOTED AROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DRIER AIR HAS FUNNELED INTO OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OUR REGION SAW ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...HIGHER PWATS RESIDE FROM N TX,
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE PINEY WOODS OF NE TX AND NEAR THE LOWER
TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. IT'S THIS MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH UPPER FORCING AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIRD. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE PROFILE AND WEAK STEERING ALOFT, THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
A TENDENCY TO TRAIN AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FORTUNATELY, MOST OF THE RAINFALL TODAY IS FALLING ACROSS AREAS
THAT WERE MOSTLY MISSED BY THE EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FELL
ON FRIDAY. PROGS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE SHOULD LOSE
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING BUT STORMS WILL RETURN
TO OUR WESTERN THIRD JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN THE MORNING WITH A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF AN EASTWARD PUSH TO THE CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE AXIS DOES EXPAND SLIGHTLY INTO THE MIDDLE
RED RIVER VALLEY OF NE TX, SE OK AND EXTREME SW AR AND NW LA FOR
SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE
7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE APPEARS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH OUR REGION DURING
THE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BUFFER OUR TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT POISED TO MAKE ITS
APPEARANCE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED
IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST FRONT TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH HIGHER AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE HIGHER POPS WARRANTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. THIS FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO SCOUR OUT OUR
MOISTURE PROFILE IN ADVANCE OF THE THURSDAY COLD FRONT SO HAVE
LEFT OUT POPS FOR NOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAPERED SLIGHTLY BEHIND
THE EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT BUT THE REAL COOLER AIR WILL BE FELT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
13
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS VALLEY REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
NOTED AROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DRIER AIR HAS FUNNELED INTO OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OUR REGION SAW ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...HIGHER PWATS RESIDE FROM N TX,
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE PINEY WOODS OF NE TX AND NEAR THE LOWER
TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. IT'S THIS MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH UPPER FORCING AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIRD. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE PROFILE AND WEAK STEERING ALOFT, THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
A TENDENCY TO TRAIN AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FORTUNATELY, MOST OF THE RAINFALL TODAY IS FALLING ACROSS AREAS
THAT WERE MOSTLY MISSED BY THE EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FELL
ON FRIDAY. PROGS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE SHOULD LOSE
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING BUT STORMS WILL RETURN
TO OUR WESTERN THIRD JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN THE MORNING WITH A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF AN EASTWARD PUSH TO THE CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE AXIS DOES EXPAND SLIGHTLY INTO THE MIDDLE
RED RIVER VALLEY OF NE TX, SE OK AND EXTREME SW AR AND NW LA FOR
SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE
7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE APPEARS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH OUR REGION DURING
THE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BUFFER OUR TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WITH ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT POISED TO MAKE ITS
APPEARANCE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED
IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST FRONT TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH HIGHER AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE HIGHER POPS WARRANTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. THIS FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO SCOUR OUT OUR
MOISTURE PROFILE IN ADVANCE OF THE THURSDAY COLD FRONT SO HAVE
LEFT OUT POPS FOR NOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAPERED SLIGHTLY BEHIND
THE EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT BUT THE REAL COOLER AIR WILL BE FELT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
FOR THE 30/18Z TAF PERIOD...TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS. ONE COMPLEX IS EXITING DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND THE OTHER, AND MUCH LARGER SYSTEM, IS MOVING
EASTWARD FARTHER NORTH. THE CONVECTION IN BOTH COMPLEXES SHOULD
MOSTLY AFFECT OUR EAST TEXAS SITES ONLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S
POSSIBLE SOME OF THE DECAYING PRECIP COULD MAKE IT TO KTXK AND
KSHV. EVENTUALLY, ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, PROGS HAVE MORE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND MOVING INTO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOCATIONS BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 89 73 88 71 / 20 20 40 20
MLU 90 68 90 68 / 0 0 20 20
DEQ 86 68 82 66 / 10 20 30 20
TXK 89 71 86 69 / 10 20 30 20
ELD 89 66 88 65 / 0 10 20 20
TYR 83 72 81 69 / 70 50 70 40
GGG 83 72 83 68 / 50 30 60 30
LFK 85 73 84 70 / 80 30 70 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20
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