046
FXUS64 KSHV 311143
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
643 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- NICE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH OUR BEST RAIN
CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND ON LABOR DAY GENERALLY WEST OF I-49.
- WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK FROM E TO NE TODAY AND FOR LABOR DAY,
WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS IN THE OVERNIGHT AND 5 TO 10 MPH EACH DAY.
- TWO MORE COOL FRONTS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEK, ON TUESDAY WITH NW
WINDS DRIVING OUT THE RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK AND A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESUME WEST OF I-49 LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
NICE DAY FOR US UNDER THE CLOUDS WITH BELOW AVERAGE READINGS FOR
LATE SUMMER. MORE TO COME THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH THE LIGHT UPPER
LEVEL NW FLOW FOCUSING BEST RAIN CHANCES WEST OF I-49. THE PARENT
MCS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OUT OF OK LAST NIGHT JUST QUIETLY
DIMINISHED DURING THE DAY KEEPING MOST SKIES OVERHEAD MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WE SEEM TO LOOKING FOR ANOTHER NOCTURNAL PUSH OVER NE TX
AND DEEP EAST TX BY MORNING WITH COVERAGE CONCENTRATING A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST WITH LESS RAINFALL IN THE OFFING.
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MAYBE A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH CHANCES IN A FEW SPOTS WEST OF I-49.
OUR LAST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COOL FRONT ARRIVES AND SWINGS NE WINDS BACK TO NW FOR A LITTLE
DRIER RUN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WPC IN CARRYING A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT ON OUR WESTERN MOST TIER OF TX
COUNTIES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE AFTERNOONS, BUT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR LATE SUMMER. AND OUR LOWS WILL TREND COOLER THIS WEEK
AS MORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1015MB ARRIVES OVER THE NATURAL
STATE, WHICH WILL LOWER THE DEW POINTS FOR ALL OF US. WE WILL ALSO
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR TO FAIR SKIES WHICH WILL DO WELL TO BRING ABOUT
A NICE RANGE OF 60S MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK, EVEN SOME UPPER
50S ACROSS OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY.
THIS NEXT FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK WILL SEE OUR EAST KEEPING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESUME TO FOCUS
OVER E TX WITH MORE OF THAT LIGHT NW FLOW. AND THEN TO SPREAD THE
LOVE AROUND, BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE YET ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARRIVING IN THE PLAINS, WHICH WILL GATHER UP THE
MOISTURE FOR A SHOT AT DECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVERYWHERE
IN OUR FOUR-STATE AREA. THE CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK IS GREAT TO AVOID
ANYMORE WORRIES WITH HEAT ADVISORIES. THEY SHOW THAT WE WILL RUN
NEAR AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER E TX INTO MID SEPTEMBER. /24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
RECOVERY HAS BEEN SLOW ACROSS THE ETX TERMINALS THIS MORNING, AS
ALL HAVE BATTLED LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN INSTANCES OF IFR AND LIFR. AT THE
SAME TIME, HI-RES HAS STRUGGLED TO CATCH UP ON A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WORKING ACROSS THE DEEP EAST TX TERMINALS, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
TYR TO LFK. EXPECTATION IS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE VICINTY OF THE ETX TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH A GENERAL SCT/BKN LAYER AT OR BELOW 5-8KFT, WITH
ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD ALOFT. BY THE EVENING, WHAT DOES
MATERIALIZE CONVECTIVELY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD
REMAINING OVERNIGHT. HEAVIEST OF THE CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST
ACROSS ETX AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHERE IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY
MATERIALIZE.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGHOUT OUR
LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 89 71 90 71 / 20 20 20 10
MLU 90 68 91 67 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 86 66 85 64 / 20 10 10 10
TXK 89 68 89 67 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 89 65 90 63 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 83 70 85 68 / 50 30 20 10
GGG 86 69 88 68 / 40 30 20 10
LFK 86 70 90 69 / 50 30 30 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53
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