560
FXUS64 KSHV 020615
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
115 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
- A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL GIVE US A CHANCE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE
RAINFALL AS NE WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- DRY WARM TO HOT DAYS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK, BUT OUR MORNING
LOWS WILL DROP A LITTLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS.
- THE HOTTEST DAYS THIS WEEK WILL COME AT THE END OF THE SHORT
WEEK WITH MORE MID TO A FEW UPPER 90S, BUT STILL NO LOOMING
CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT AS OUR RH WILL KEEP IN CHECK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS WORKING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES RIGHT NOW
WITH LIGHT NE WINDS EVENTUALLY STIRRING FOR ALL OF US BY
DAYBREAK. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO NW DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OUR CHANCE FOR RAINFALL FOR A COUPLE OR FEW
DAYS AFTER THIS AFTERNOON OR SOME OF US ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. COVERAGE TODAY WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST OF US, TO HIGH CHANCES OVER INTO OUR PARISHES.
THIS IS WHERE TIMING AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH HEATING SHOULD BE
MOST PRODUCTIVE WITH ANY CHANCE CONVECTION. AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH ONLY BRIEF DOWNPOURS EXPECTED. THE SPC IS
KEEPING THE GENERAL RISK FOR SUMMER ACTIVITY WITH SOME DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE FROM ANY STRONG STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. THE
WPC HAS AN ERO FOR THE MS DELTA REGION WHICH IS JUST TO OUR EAST,
BUT THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE A HIGHEST POPS FOR TODAY.
THE NW WINDS WILL LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS, DRYING THINGS OUT ALONG
WITH MORE LATE SUMMER SUNSHINE THAN WE HAVE SEEN HERE LATELY. THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE ASIDE FROM THE LACK OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS.
OVERALL, WE ARE STILL CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW CLIMATE AVERAGES.
THE NW WINDS WILL BACK TO SW BY LATE WORK/SCHOOL WEEK HELPING TO
MAKE A RUN THROUGH SOME MORE TYPICAL DOG DAY HEAT WITH MID 70S AND
MID 90S. THE INTERMOUNTAIN HEAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THE BIGGER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FLEXES IT'S
FALL MUSCLE. OUR NW FLOW OF LATE WILL CONTINUE BACKING A BIT MORE
ZONAL FROM THE WEST FOR THIS WEEK AHEAD, BUT THE BIG TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AGAIN LATER THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT.
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AREA WIDE FOR SATURDAY
WITH SOME NICE COOLER TEMPS ARRIVING FOR BOTH DAYS, BUT ESPECIALLY
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ON THE HIGH END AS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES LINGER WITH MORE OF THAT
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
VFR AND A MIX OF SCT/BKN BETWEEN 7-9KFT TO START THE TAF PERIOD AS
THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY REDUCTIONS, THOUGH AREAS THAT SAW RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON MAY SEE BRIEF DIPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TERMINAL
IMPACTS ARE NOT HIGH. BY THE AFTERNOON, A CU FIELD SHOULD
MATERIALIZE AROUND 5/6KFT WITH SOME MID CLOUD JUST ABOVE 10KFT, WITH
VFR EXPECTED. DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED POP UP SHRA/TSRA WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE
REGIME, CONFIDENCE IN TERMINAL IMPACTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM MENTIONING ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH. THIS IS ONLY MENTIONED AT
MLU AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR VICINITY BASED ON RECENT HI-RES
GUIDANCE.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 90 72 91 69 / 20 10 10 0
MLU 90 69 89 68 / 50 20 30 0
DEQ 85 65 88 64 / 20 0 10 0
TXK 89 69 90 67 / 20 0 10 0
ELD 89 66 89 65 / 30 10 20 0
TYR 87 69 88 67 / 20 0 0 0
GGG 88 68 89 66 / 20 0 0 0
LFK 91 70 91 67 / 20 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53
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