230
FXUS64 KSHV 030521
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1221 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY FOR
OUR EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING ON
THURSDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON SATURDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COOL FRONT THAT STRETCHES
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IT STARTS TO WASH
OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT BEGINS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON,
THERE WILL REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL OF SOME CONVECTION THAT COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY WILL
EASILY BE THE "COOLEST" DAY WE WILL SEE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND IT APPEARS THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO
BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND WILL START TO TAKE
HOLD ON THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE GREATLY EVIDENT ON
THURSDAY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY, WHICH WILL ALSO
BE OUR "HOTTEST" DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
MAINLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S, BUT I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOME AND
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH WILL BEGIN PUSH BACK INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AND SOME INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
KEEP AREAS NORTH OF I-30 IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY
WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. THE COOLER AIR WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES TO THE MID 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WONDERFUL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE REGION, I THINK MOST AREAS COULD STAY BELOW 85 DEGREES.
FOR REFERENCE, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS. AS IS COMMON SOMETIMES LATER IN SEPTEMBER, THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
STARTING ON TUESDAY.
WHILE WE WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN FROM
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. OUR 7-DAY
QPF AMOUNTS ARE SHOWING AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR OUR WESTERN
ZONES, ALL OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE D5-D7 RANGE. /33/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
FOR THE 03/00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL, WITH THE
ONLY IMPACTS OF NOTE BEING A FEW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREA AIRSPACE, REFLECTED IN VCTS FOR NEARBY
TERMINALS. IMPACTS, IF ANY SHOULD DEVELOP, LOOK TO BE MINOR AND
SHORT-LIVED, WITH STORMS DISSIPATING INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NEARLY CALM AT SOME SITES,
INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DAWN. WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW, INCREASING TO ABOUT
5 KTS SUSTAINED.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 91 70 95 73 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 89 68 95 70 / 40 0 0 0
DEQ 88 64 91 67 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 90 68 95 71 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 88 65 94 68 / 20 0 0 0
TYR 88 68 91 73 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 89 67 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 92 68 95 71 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...26
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