653
FXUS64 KSHV 130531
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1231 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AND TEMPERATURES HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION.
- OUTDOOR HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MORE
DANGEROUS HEAT, BUT TEMPORARILY ENHANCE WILDFIRE AND DROUGHT
DEVELOPMENT RISKS FURTHER INTO SEPTEMBER.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTROL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR ALMOST NO RAINFALL THROUGH
THE SAME PERIOD WITH VARIABLY LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (UPPER 90S). THE
ONLY REPRIEVE FROM MORE DANGEROUS HEAT WILL COME FROM DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WITH MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOWER 60S INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, THIS GRADUALLY
DRIER AIR WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN FOR ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
AND DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT INTO NEXT WEEK. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS FURTHER DEGRADATION OF THIS RIDGING THAT OPENS THE DOOR
FOR A SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS, AND ENHANCES OUR CHANCES OF RAIN INTO LATE SEPTEMBER. /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
FOR THE 13/06Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A FEW MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING THROUGH THE REGION, BUT NOTHING TO
SUGGEST ANYTHING BELOW FEW250 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS
SOME LOW END POTENTIAL THAT SOME BR COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH THAT
IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IT AT THIS TIME. CU FIELD
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND I HAVE ALL TERMINALS
GOING TO SCT050 AROUND 13/16Z BEFORE GOING BACK TO FEW250 AROUND
13/20Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 97 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 96 68 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 93 68 92 68 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 96 71 95 71 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 96 67 94 67 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 93 72 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 94 70 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 95 70 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...33
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