917
FXUS64 KSHV 131857
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
157 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
- THIS STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VERY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.
- THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, FINALLY SIGNALING A PATTERN SHIFT.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE
NEXT WEEK AND BRING SLIGHTLY IMPROVED RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE ALSO HELPING TO TAMP DOWN THE HEAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THE ORIENTATION OF THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED FROM 24 HOURS AGO AT THIS TIME, EXTENDING FROM SW TO NE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL CONUS. JUST EAST OF THE
CENTER OF THIS RIDGE AXIS, THERE IS A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE
CUMULUS FIELD WITH MORE ENHANCED TOPS TO THE CLOUDS OVER OUR EAST
COMPARED TO THOSE FARTHER WEST. AS A RESULT, WE ARE BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MORE OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING.
THEREFORE, DID INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-30 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS. BEYOND THAT, LOOK FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE CU FIELD CLOSER TO
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S/SE WINDS.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY, IT'S STILL A RINSE
AND REPEAT FORECAST FOR NOW. THAT MEANS THIS MID-SEPTEMBER HEAT
REMAINS THE OVERARCHING THEME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
ASIDE FROM THE BRIEF AND EXTREMELY ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE AXIS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH FROM THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL HELP TO TEMPER THE HEAT BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ADDITIONAL LOW-END RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THIS TROUGH MAY ALSO PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO USHER A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
FOR THE 13/18Z TAFS...A CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, CLEARING TO FEW250
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE ABOUT IF THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION I'VE INCLUDED BKN250 IN THE FORECAST, BUT IF RECENT
CONDITIONS PERSIST, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THINGS WILL STAY TOO DRY
FOR CLOUD COVER PAST SCT. FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY FOR SITES AT THE
MOMENT DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE, BUT WINDS IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WILL DROP ENOUGH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IF ANY MOISTURE
ADVECTION MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 68 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 68 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 71 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 68 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 72 91 71 91 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 71 93 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 71 94 71 92 / 0 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33
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