744
FXUS64 KSHV 141735
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1235 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AND TEMPERATURES HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL (AS WE'VE WITNESSED IN THE PAST
FEW AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS) BE WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLY LIGHT WINDS AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (UPPER
90S) WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SHOWERS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE VARIABILITY IN SURFACE WINDS. OTHERWISE, THE
ONLY REPRIEVE FROM MORE DANGEROUS HEAT WILL COME FROM DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE RIDGE AXIS BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FURTHER DEGRADATION OF THIS
RIDGING THAT OPENS THE DOOR FOR A SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE TO
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, AND ENHANCES OUR CHANCES OF
RAIN INTO LATE SEPTEMBER. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRANSITS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO FORCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
FOR THE 14/18Z TAFS...A HIGH DECK OF CIRROSTRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE 1-49 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. THIS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE IS SOME POP-UP CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS THAT WILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE WEST
AND CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
SOON AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WEAKENING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 20
MLU 70 96 71 95 / 0 10 10 20
DEQ 68 93 67 93 / 0 20 0 20
TXK 71 95 71 95 / 0 20 0 20
ELD 68 95 68 95 / 0 20 10 20
TYR 70 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 20
GGG 69 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 20
LFK 70 93 70 94 / 0 10 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...57
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