205
FXUS64 KSHV 142341
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
641 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- A FEW MORE DAYS OF ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
- THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK, FINALLY SIGNALING A PATTERN SHIFT.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK
AND BRING IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES WHILE ALSO TEMPERING THE HEAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER TODAY IN ADDITION TO AN
EXPANDING CU FIELD HASN'T PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS AROUND THIS TIME, ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
A BIT MORE DELAYED IN DEVELOPING BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MOST OF OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH
ANOTHER NEAR REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON MONDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR ANY
CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS ARKANSAS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS WE MOVE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS A MORE BROAD AREA OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER TIME AND AN UPPER TROUGH FILLS THE VOID.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH EVEN DEEPER INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, PROVIDING A WELCOME PATTERN SHIFT FROM
WHAT HAS BEEN A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. AS A RESULT, WE CAN EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES TO BOOT. IT ALSO APPEARS A COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T
EXACTLY HIGH ON JUST WHEN THAT FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION
AND USHER IN A FRESH AIR MASS JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL START
OF THE FALL SEASON.
/19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
FOR THE 15/00Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE AREA.
AFTERNOON CU WILL RETURN TOMORROW, WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 20
MLU 70 96 71 95 / 0 10 10 20
DEQ 68 93 67 93 / 0 20 0 20
TXK 71 95 71 95 / 0 20 0 20
ELD 68 95 68 95 / 0 20 10 20
TYR 70 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 20
GGG 69 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 20
LFK 70 93 70 94 / 0 10 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...20
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