170
FXUS64 KSHV 150544
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1244 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION, ALLOWING FOR NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THIS WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
INCREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT. ALOFT, THIS IS
ALSO DUE TO THE BEGINNING OF A SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFT WHERE
TROUGHING TAKES HOLD ACROSS MORE OF THE GREAT PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM
FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL GAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT,
PROPAGATING ENOUGH VORTICITY/PERTURBATIONS IN THIS FLOW TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION AFTER WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM AND LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE ALL
SUGGEST A PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH SOME
LINGERING STORMS OVERNIGHT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTOGETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW FOR A REPRIEVE FROM ABOVE-NORMAL LATE SUMMER
HEAT WITH TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S. /16/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
FOR THE 15/00Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE AREA.
AFTERNOON CU WILL RETURN TOMORROW, WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 96 72 96 72 / 10 10 10 10
MLU 96 71 96 69 / 10 10 20 10
DEQ 94 67 93 66 / 20 20 20 10
TXK 96 70 95 69 / 20 20 20 10
ELD 95 68 94 66 / 20 20 20 10
TYR 92 69 91 70 / 10 10 10 0
GGG 94 69 93 69 / 10 10 10 10
LFK 93 69 94 69 / 10 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20
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