122
FXUS64 KSHV 151053
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
553 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION, ALLOWING FOR NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THIS WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
INCREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT. ALOFT, THIS IS
ALSO DUE TO THE BEGINNING OF A SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFT WHERE
TROUGHING TAKES HOLD ACROSS MORE OF THE GREAT PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM
FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL GAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT,
PROPAGATING ENOUGH VORTICITY/PERTURBATIONS IN THIS FLOW TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION AFTER WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM AND LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE ALL
SUGGEST A PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH SOME
LINGERING STORMS OVERNIGHT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTOGETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW FOR A REPRIEVE FROM ABOVE-NORMAL LATE SUMMER
HEAT WITH TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
FOR THE 15/12Z TAF UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REMAINS
QUIET ACROSS THE REGION WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING THROUGH THE AREA. I HAVE PREVAILED
SCT250 TO BKN250 FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING. BY LATER THIS MORNING, OUR DAILY CU FIELD WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP, SO I HAVE MENTION OF SCT080 AROUND 15/16Z GRADUALLY
DROPPING TO AROUND SCT060 AROUND 15/21Z. WHILE IT DOESN'T SHOW IN
THE POPS FOR TODAY, I DO HAVE MENTION OF VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 15/21Z. MODELS ARE SPLIT DOWN THE MIDDLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WE WILL GET THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LEANING TOWARDS
SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ONES AT LEAST PUTS US WITH SOME
VICINITY SHOWERS, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME NOT PROVIDING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT ANYTHING WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL. ASIDE
FROM ANY STRONGER WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP,
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND UNDER 5KTS THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 96 72 96 72 / 10 10 10 10
MLU 96 71 96 69 / 10 10 20 10
DEQ 94 67 93 66 / 20 20 20 10
TXK 96 70 95 69 / 20 20 20 10
ELD 95 68 94 66 / 20 20 20 10
TYR 92 69 91 70 / 10 10 10 0
GGG 94 69 93 69 / 10 10 10 10
LFK 93 69 94 69 / 10 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...33
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