379
FXUS64 KSHV 151825 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
125 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 90'S ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- THOUGH SPOTTY TO START, RAIN PROSPECTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS
THE BACK HALF OF THE PERIOD.
- SEVEN DAY QPF VALUES ARE TRENDING BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF
AN INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ARE SITTING IN THE UPPER 80'S AND LOW 90'S.
THAT BEING SAID, REGIONAL DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60'S AND LOW
70'S ARE ALLOWING FOR THE 90'S TO BE TOLERABLE AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90'S FOR AT LEAST ONE
MORE DAY. THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DIP
FROM THE MID AND UPPER 90'S, BACK TOWARDS THE LOW AND MID 90'S AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THROUGH MID-WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME,
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE CARDS THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH INCREASING POPS BY THE BACK HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
TRAPPED UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE PNW SPILLS SOUTHWARD.
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, SPOTTY AND VERY ISOLATED PROSPECTS
EXIST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHEN IT COMES TO SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW
ARKANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME, HI-RES FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. THESE LOOK TO
DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK AXIS OF 850MB FORCING BACKDOORING INTO THE
REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE SHOWERS CARRY WEST ACROSS THE I-20
CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS EAST TEXAS CLOSER TO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND THOUGH, RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES WITHIN THE FLOW WOULD ONLY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD FOLLOW THE DISSIPATION OF ANY EARLY MORNING PRECIP.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 15/18Z TAF PERIOD. A
SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION, WITH ELEVATED CU CIGS EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER E
TX S OF I-20, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF N LA S OF I-20. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SE OK/SW AR, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM AND WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. THE CU FIELD AND ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME CU MAY
LINGER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER E TX. LOW AC
CIGS OVER NW MS/ERN AR ARE EXPECTED TO BACKDOOR SW INTO SRN AR/N
LA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BEFORE EVENTUALLY SPILLING INTO E TX.
ISOLATED -SHRA CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT,
BUT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY REDUCTION TO CIGS/VSBYS, AND SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE THINNING. VRB
WINDS 5KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LT/VRB OR CALM AFTER
00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 96 73 94 / 0 20 10 10
MLU 71 95 70 94 / 10 20 10 20
DEQ 67 93 66 92 / 20 20 10 20
TXK 70 96 70 94 / 10 20 10 10
ELD 67 93 67 93 / 20 20 10 20
TYR 70 92 70 91 / 0 20 10 10
GGG 70 93 69 93 / 0 20 10 10
LFK 70 94 70 94 / 0 10 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15
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