944
FXUS64 KSHV 161028
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
528 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS WEEK ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION, ALLOWING FOR NEAR-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. DAYS 1-7 RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
MOST LIKELY IN THE 0.25-1 INCH RANGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASING
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT. ALOFT, THIS IS ALSO DUE TO
THE BEGINNING OF A SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFT WHERE TROUGHING TAKES
HOLD ACROSS MORE OF THE GREAT PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM FLOW INTO THE
AREA WILL GAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT, PROPAGATING ENOUGH
VORTICITY/PERTURBATIONS IN THIS FLOW TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AFTER
WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM AND LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST A PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH SOME LINGERING STORMS
OVERNIGHT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS IMPULSES CONTINUE TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AND STIMULATE CONVECTION. ALTOGETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ALLOW FOR A REPRIEVE FROM ABOVE-NORMAL LATE SUMMER HEAT WITH
TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S BY THIS WEEKEND. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
WHILE A DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE WELL REMOVED FROM OUR AIRSPACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ATTM, SPOKES OF UPPER FORCING WILL HELP TO
IGNITE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR AIRSPACE TODAY. WHILE THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN
BUBBLING ACROSS MS ALL NIGHT, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME OF THIS
DEVELOP ACROSS NE LA ATTM AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE PREVAILED VCTS
AT THE MLU TERMINAL TO BEGIN THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WITH VCTS ACROSS
ALL BUT THE TYR AND GGG TERMINALS FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING. UNTIL THAT TIME, LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 72 94 72 / 20 20 10 10
MLU 95 70 94 69 / 20 20 20 10
DEQ 93 66 92 66 / 20 20 20 10
TXK 95 70 94 69 / 20 20 10 10
ELD 93 67 93 67 / 20 20 20 10
TYR 92 70 92 70 / 20 20 10 10
GGG 93 69 93 69 / 20 20 10 10
LFK 94 70 94 69 / 20 20 20 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...13
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