936
FXUS64 KSHV 161821
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
121 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION AND AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST FOR AREAS IN AND NORTHWEST OF THE ARKLATEX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ATYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR, THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS VERY TYPICAL OF THE SUMMER.
HIGHS SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
UPPER 90S. DIURINALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (LESS THAN
20% COVERAGE) ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH EVEN
LESS COVERAGE IN EAST TEXAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SIMILAR
WEATHER IS FORECAST TOMORROW, BUT WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE QUIET
WEATHER RECENTLY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, OPENING THE DOOR FOR TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FOR THOSE WITHIN AND
NORTHWEST OF THE ARKLATEX (WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE). WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
EACH DAY, THE LACK OF AN ORGANIZED SOURCE OF ASCENT WILL KEEP THE
COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND
WEAKER SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO NEAR
THE SEASONAL NORMALS, WHICH WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME.
MOST OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A RELATIVELY STRONG MID-
AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN
THE EARLY-TO-MID PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A ROUGHLY 1 IN 4 CHANCE THAT THE LOW
STARTS AS A CUTOFF LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (AND LOWER TEMPERATURES) ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OTHER 3/4THS OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRIER
AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH OVERHEAD AND TO OUR EAST. THE 1/4 OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT FAVOR A LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST HAVE
MUCH HIGHER RAIN TOTALS COMPARED TO THE DRIER 3/4. THESE HIGHER
VALUES ARE DRIVING UP THE ENTIRE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHEN IT IS COMPARED
TO THE 50TH PERCENTILE (MEDIAN) VALUE. DUE TO THE SPREAD BETWEEN
THE 50TH PERCENTILE AND MEAN VALUE, ADVERTISING RAIN TOTALS FOR
NEXT WEEK'S SYSTEMS ARE FAR TOO UNRELIABLE. THIS IS STILL 7-10
DAYS OUT, SO WE HAVE SOME TIME TO START TO HONE IN ON A SOLUTION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SHALLOW CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALREADY.
MOST OF THE CUMULUS TODAY SHOULD BE INNOCUOUS, BUT EXPECT ABOUT
20% COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
COVERAGE IS ON THE LOW-END, WE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY TEMPO OR ON-
STATION MENTION OF PRECIP IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS, BUT MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE AWAY FROM OUR TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE (FROM 200-300) THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TOMORROW, BUT MAINLY AFTER 18Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 96 72 95 73 / 20 20 20 10
MLU 95 70 95 70 / 20 20 20 0
DEQ 93 67 92 66 / 20 20 20 10
TXK 95 70 95 70 / 20 20 20 0
ELD 94 67 93 67 / 20 20 20 0
TYR 92 70 92 70 / 20 20 20 10
GGG 94 69 94 70 / 20 20 20 10
LFK 94 70 94 70 / 20 20 20 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BONNETTE/FWD
AVIATION...BONNETTE/FWD
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