337
FXUS64 KSHV 170121
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
821 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST FOR AREAS IN AND NORTHWEST OF THE ARKLATEX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ATYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR, THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS VERY TYPICAL OF THE SUMMER.
HIGHS SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
UPPER 90S. DIURINALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (LESS THAN
20% COVERAGE) ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH EVEN
LESS COVERAGE IN EAST TEXAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SIMILAR
WEATHER IS FORECAST TOMORROW, BUT WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE QUIET
WEATHER RECENTLY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, OPENING THE DOOR FOR TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FOR THOSE WITHIN AND
NORTHWEST OF THE ARKLATEX (WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE). WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
EACH DAY, THE LACK OF AN ORGANIZED SOURCE OF ASCENT WILL KEEP THE
COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND
WEAKER SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO NEAR
THE SEASONAL NORMALS, WHICH WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME.
MOST OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A RELATIVELY STRONG MID-
AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN
THE EARLY-TO-MID PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A ROUGHLY 1 IN 4 CHANCE THAT THE LOW
STARTS AS A CUTOFF LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (AND LOWER TEMPERATURES) ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OTHER 3/4THS OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRIER
AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH OVERHEAD AND TO OUR EAST. THE 1/4 OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT FAVOR A LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST HAVE
MUCH HIGHER RAIN TOTALS COMPARED TO THE DRIER 3/4. THESE HIGHER
VALUES ARE DRIVING UP THE ENTIRE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHEN IT IS COMPARED
TO THE 50TH PERCENTILE (MEDIAN) VALUE. DUE TO THE SPREAD BETWEEN
THE 50TH PERCENTILE AND MEAN VALUE, ADVERTISING RAIN TOTALS FOR
NEXT WEEK'S SYSTEMS ARE FAR TOO UNRELIABLE. THIS IS STILL 7-10
DAYS OUT, SO WE HAVE SOME TIME TO START TO HONE IN ON A SOLUTION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE FINALLY RETURN TO
ALL SITES. THERE IS SOME MODEL HINT THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA, AND MAYBE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF EAST
TEXAS, BUT NOT EXPECTING CHANGES IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WE ARE
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG AT KELD/KMLU NEAR DAYBREAK, AS LIGHT
WINDS AND TODAY'S RAINFALL WILL AID IN THAT POSSIBILITY. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD, MODELS HINT AGAIN AT SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. BUT, CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME, SO DECIDED TO KEEP OUT OF THE TAFS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.
/20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 96 72 94 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 70 95 69 93 / 20 10 0 10
DEQ 67 93 66 91 / 20 10 10 30
TXK 70 95 70 94 / 20 10 0 20
ELD 67 94 66 93 / 20 10 0 20
TYR 70 92 70 91 / 20 10 10 10
GGG 69 94 69 93 / 10 10 0 20
LFK 70 95 69 93 / 20 10 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BONNETTE
AVIATION...20
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