328
FXUS64 KSHV 171902
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
202 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
- SUMMER'S LAST FEW DAYS WILL KEEP AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OUR
HIGHS AND LOWS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
- AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MIDWEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE AS COVERAGE INCREASES FRIDAY.
- FALL BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE MODELS DO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND EASE IN A BROAD TROUGH FOR LESS HEAT AND
MORE RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH HEATING GETTING ANOTHER LATE
START FOR SOME CONVECTION. GENERAL MOTIONS CONTINUE FROM N TO S
WITH ANVILS BLOWING OFF TO THE S/SE. STORM PROPAGATION FAVORS THE
MORE SUNNY SW FLANK AND SHOULD LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE
SPC CONTINUES A GENERAL RISK SO COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS
REMAINS ISOLATED. THIS SUMMER HEAT CAN PACK A PUNCH AS THE RAIN
COOLED AIR CRASHES DOWN. OUR 18Z SOUNDING REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
MORE DEVELOPMENT WITH PWAT AT AN INCH AND HALF. OUR DOWNDRAFT CAPE
REMAINS ELEVATED WITH SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS.
COVERAGE LOOKS SIMILAR AGAIN ON THURSDAY, BUT THE MODELS BREAK
DOWN THE WEAK OMEGA BLOCKING OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AS A
FRONT CHIPS AWAY IN THE WEAK NW FLOW REGIME. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MORE NOCTURNAL FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
FOR I-30 AS A WEAK AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE
NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LOAD UP IMPULSES AS SOME BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS IN FROM THE NW AND DAMPENS THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGE.
AND SO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT BY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD
SEE SOME COOLER READINGS, BUT STILL QUITE AVERAGE IN THE VERY WARM
RANGE RIGHT AROUND THE EARLY FALL AVERAGES. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, COVERAGE DOES IMPROVE WITH TIME AND EXPECTATIONS GO UP
MORE WITH THE NW FLOW HAVING MORE IMPACT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AN
INCH OR TWO TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. /24/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/18Z TAF PERIOD. A
SCATTERED ELEVATED CU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SE OK/SW AR/N LA BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON,
WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF E TX. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT GREAT THAT CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE AREA TERMINALS IN SW
AR/N LA, BUT DID MAINTAIN VCTS FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOR TXK/SHV
ONLY, AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED ELSEWHERE AS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR THE CONVECTION, WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH BY MID EVENING.
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER E TX, WITH AN ELEVATED CU FIELD
PERSISTING OVER N LA/E TX ALONG/S OF I-20 THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. A SCATTERED STRATOCU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA, WITH ANY
BRIEF HIGH-BASED MVFR CIGS QUICKLY LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT INTO A CU
FIELD BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF E
TX/SW AR/NW LA, JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS TAF PERIOD. VRB WINDS
AROUND 5KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 94 73 93 / 20 20 10 30
MLU 69 94 69 94 / 20 10 0 30
DEQ 66 92 66 86 / 20 30 30 50
TXK 70 95 70 91 / 20 20 10 40
ELD 67 93 68 91 / 20 20 10 40
TYR 70 92 70 89 / 20 20 20 30
GGG 69 93 69 91 / 20 20 10 30
LFK 70 93 69 94 / 20 10 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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