306
FXUS64 KSHV 180354
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1054 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
- SUMMER'S LAST FEW DAYS WILL KEEP AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OUR
HIGHS AND LOWS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
- AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MIDWEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE AS COVERAGE INCREASES FRIDAY.
- FALL BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE MODELS DO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND EASE IN A BROAD TROUGH FOR LESS HEAT AND
MORE RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH HEATING GETTING ANOTHER LATE
START FOR SOME CONVECTION. GENERAL MOTIONS CONTINUE FROM N TO S
WITH ANVILS BLOWING OFF TO THE S/SE. STORM PROPAGATION FAVORS THE
MORE SUNNY SW FLANK AND SHOULD LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE
SPC CONTINUES A GENERAL RISK SO COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS
REMAINS ISOLATED. THIS SUMMER HEAT CAN PACK A PUNCH AS THE RAIN
COOLED AIR CRASHES DOWN. OUR 18Z SOUNDING REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
MORE DEVELOPMENT WITH PWAT AT AN INCH AND HALF. OUR DOWNDRAFT CAPE
REMAINS ELEVATED WITH SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS.
COVERAGE LOOKS SIMILAR AGAIN ON THURSDAY, BUT THE MODELS BREAK
DOWN THE WEAK OMEGA BLOCKING OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AS A
FRONT CHIPS AWAY IN THE WEAK NW FLOW REGIME. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MORE NOCTURNAL FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
FOR I-30 AS A WEAK AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE
NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LOAD UP IMPULSES AS SOME BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS IN FROM THE NW AND DAMPENS THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGE.
AND SO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT BY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD
SEE SOME COOLER READINGS, BUT STILL QUITE AVERAGE IN THE VERY WARM
RANGE RIGHT AROUND THE EARLY FALL AVERAGES. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, COVERAGE DOES IMPROVE WITH TIME AND EXPECTATIONS GO UP
MORE WITH THE NW FLOW HAVING MORE IMPACT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AN
INCH OR TWO TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED EAST OF THE LFK
TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR VSBYS AT THE ELD/MLU AND LFK TERMINALS NEAR OR
JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOOK FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CU
FIELD ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. FEEL LIKE THAT THREAT WOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED AT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS SO LEFT VCTS OUT BUT
ACROSS ALL OTHER TERMINALS, BEGAN VCTS AT 19-20Z AND KEPT IT
THROUGH 02-03Z THURSDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS ON
THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 94 73 93 / 20 20 10 30
MLU 69 94 69 94 / 20 10 0 30
DEQ 66 92 66 86 / 20 30 30 50
TXK 70 95 70 91 / 20 20 10 40
ELD 67 93 68 91 / 20 20 10 40
TYR 70 92 70 89 / 20 20 20 30
GGG 69 93 69 91 / 20 20 10 30
LFK 70 93 69 94 / 20 10 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13
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