015
FXUS64 KSHV 180458
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
- ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AND WARM AFTERNOON ARE IN STORE, WITH
SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY, WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS USHERING IN THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSETTLED, WITH DAILY RAINFALL
CHANCES AND MORE MILD TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATED, A QUIET, MILD AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE, AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNRISE. THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE YET ANOTHER WARM LATE SUMMER
DAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND SOME SITES
TAKING AIM AT THE UPPER 90S AGAIN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING
TO RESOLVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION, THUS
ELECTED TO BUMP LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS UP AREAWIDE TO
REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.
OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE ARRIVAL OF
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT SPECIFICS ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY REMAIN HAZY AT THIS TIME. EARLIER SOLUTIONS INTRODUCE
STORMS AS SOON AS MIDNIGHT, WITH OTHERS DELAYING ARRIVAL UNTIL
DAYBREAK OR INTO THE MORNING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE OZARKS INTO FRIDAY, A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SWING INTO THE ARKLATEX FROM THE NORTHWEST, CLEARING THE
REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO
MODERATE HIGH TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD
EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS, HINDERING NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES AND
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TO MAINTAIN THEIR
HOLD ON THE REGION. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOK
TO KICK UP SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH AND WEST
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED, DAILY RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS DROPPING FROM THE 90S TO 80S, AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S
THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED EAST OF THE LFK
TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR VSBYS AT THE ELD/MLU AND LFK TERMINALS NEAR OR
JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOOK FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CU
FIELD ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. FEEL LIKE THAT THREAT WOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED AT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS SO LEFT VCTS OUT BUT
ACROSS ALL OTHER TERMINALS, BEGAN VCTS AT 19-20Z AND KEPT IT
THROUGH 02-03Z THURSDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS ON
THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 97 73 93 / 20 20 20 30
MLU 69 95 69 94 / 0 20 20 20
DEQ 66 92 66 88 / 10 20 30 40
TXK 70 96 69 92 / 0 20 20 40
ELD 67 94 68 91 / 10 20 20 40
TYR 71 92 70 90 / 10 20 20 40
GGG 69 94 69 91 / 10 20 20 30
LFK 70 95 70 93 / 10 20 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
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