662
FXUS64 KSHV 181724
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1224 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
- ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AND WARM AFTERNOON ARE IN STORE, WITH
SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY, WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS USHERING IN THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSETTLED, WITH DAILY RAINFALL
CHANCES AND MORE MILD TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATED, A QUIET, MILD AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE, AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNRISE. THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE YET ANOTHER WARM LATE SUMMER
DAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND SOME SITES
TAKING AIM AT THE UPPER 90S AGAIN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING
TO RESOLVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION, THUS
ELECTED TO BUMP LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS UP AREAWIDE TO
REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.
OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE ARRIVAL OF
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT SPECIFICS ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY REMAIN HAZY AT THIS TIME. EARLIER SOLUTIONS INTRODUCE
STORMS AS SOON AS MIDNIGHT, WITH OTHERS DELAYING ARRIVAL UNTIL
DAYBREAK OR INTO THE MORNING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE OZARKS INTO FRIDAY, A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SWING INTO THE ARKLATEX FROM THE NORTHWEST, CLEARING THE
REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO
MODERATE HIGH TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD
EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS, HINDERING NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES AND
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TO MAINTAIN THEIR
HOLD ON THE REGION. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOK
TO KICK UP SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH AND WEST
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED, DAILY RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS DROPPING FROM THE 90S TO 80S, AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S
THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING VCTS CONDITIONS TO MOST
TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER
19/02Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AROUND 19/10Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ENDING 19/18Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 92 71 95 / 20 30 0 0
MLU 69 94 69 96 / 0 20 0 0
DEQ 66 88 66 91 / 30 50 0 10
TXK 70 91 69 94 / 20 40 0 0
ELD 67 91 65 94 / 20 40 0 10
TYR 71 89 68 91 / 20 40 0 0
GGG 70 91 68 92 / 20 40 0 0
LFK 70 94 68 94 / 10 20 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...05
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